ARCADIA BIOSCIENCES INC (RKDA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.16+2.06%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RKDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -85.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -21.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
RKDA — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-09-04
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On August 31, 2026, Arcadia Biociences, Inc. (the "Company") received an expected letter (the “Letter”) from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that its stockholders’ equity, as reported in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026 (the “Form 10-Q”), did not meet the minimum stockholders’ equity requi…
Why it matters: Arcadia ended Q2 with $4.2 million in cash, but said it needs more funding. Lower cash use without another dilutive raise would ease that pressure.
Worry ifThe November 6 report shows Q3 operating cash use of $319,000 or less. It discloses no new equity or debt raise.
Less concerning ifThe report shows operating cash use above $319,000. Or it discloses a new equity or debt raise to fund operations.
Why it matters: Arcadia received a notice that its share price did not meet Nasdaq's minimum bid rule. A compliance update will show whether this listing issue remains open.
Worry ifArcadia reports it met Nasdaq's minimum bid price rule or got more time to comply.
Less concerning ifArcadia reports Nasdaq found it out of compliance by the deadline. Or Nasdaq began delisting proceedings over the bid price rule.
Why it matters: Q2 sales were flat, but July sales topped $740,000. Higher Q3 sales would show that the shipping and stock issues eased.
Supportive ifQ3 Zola revenue is above $1.455 million, its Q3 2025 revenue. Management reports no major stock or shipping delays.
Worry ifQ3 Zola revenue is flat or lower year over year. Or management reports ongoing stock or shipping delays.
Why it matters: The new drink had early commitments from Arcadia's two largest customers. A launch and follow-up sales would test that demand.
Supportive ifArcadia launches the 1-liter espresso in Q4 2026. It reports sales or repeat orders from either of its two largest customers.
Worry ifArcadia delays the launch past Q4 2026, or reports no sales or orders from its two largest customers.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$313 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,233 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,628 loss on $10,000 · 96.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.