ARCADIA BIOSCIENCES INC (RKDA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.47+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RKDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -21.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RKDA — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-09-04
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On August 31, 2026, Arcadia Biociences, Inc. (the "Company") received an expected letter (the “Letter”) from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that its stockholders’ equity, as reported in its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026 (the “Form 10-Q”), did not meet the minimum stockholders’ equity requi…
Why it matters: Keeping costs low can help make more money. This is important for management.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses decrease further compared to prior quarters.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase or stabilize at higher levels.
Why it matters: Higher revenue in Q2 may show better financial performance. It can also mean more market acceptance.
Watch forTotal revenues for Q2 2026 exceed $1.5 million.
Also watch forTotal revenues for Q2 2026 fall below $1.0 million.
Why it matters: Management wants to improve financial performance. This could lead to more profit in the future.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$3,000,000 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income worsens beyond -$5,000,000 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Launching new products could drive Zola's growth and improve financial performance.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the launch of the new 1-liter espresso product in Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of the product launch by the end of Q3 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,139 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,232 loss on $10,000 · 92.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changing auditors might affect how investors feel and the quality of financial reports. Investors will look to see if a new auditor does a better job.
Worry ifA new auditor is chosen and gives a good report on the financials.
Less concerning ifNo new auditor is chosen, or the new auditor has worries about the financials.
Why it matters: Revenue growth in Q3 would confirm that Zola is recovering from previous supply chain issues.
Supportive ifZola revenue in Q3 2026 is up from last year. This shows new products are working.
Worry ifZola revenue in Q3 2026 is down or the same as last year.
Why it matters: How well the private placement works could affect cash flow and funding for growth. Investors will see how this impacts financial stability.
Supportive ifThe private placement raises over $5 million and funds growth projects.
Worry ifThe private placement does not raise enough money or is delayed too long.
Why it matters: A successful new product launch could boost sales and brand visibility. It is a key part of growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe new product launches on time and gets good feedback from the market.
Worry ifThe product launch is delayed or receives negative market feedback.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in Zola sales supports management's focus on brand expansion. It shows demand for their products.
Supportive ifZola coconut water sales grow at least 15% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifZola coconut water sales grow less than 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this placement is crucial for funding operations and growth plans. It shows financial stability.
Supportive ifThe private placement closes on or before June 12, 2026, with funds received.
Worry ifThe private placement does not close as planned, delaying funding.
Why it matters: The private placement could impact financial stability. Investors will want to see if losses decrease.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$3 million in the next quarter after the placement.
Worry ifNet income worsens to more than -$5 million in the next quarter after the placement.
Why it matters: Continued growth in Zola sales would support management's claims of a growth phase. It shows demand for the product is strong.
Supportive ifZola sales were over $1 million in August 2026. This follows July sales of over $740K.
Worry ifZola sales fall below $740K in August 2026.
Why it matters: A successful launch would show that management's growth plan works. This could lead to more sales.
Supportive ifA new 1-liter espresso product will launch in Q4 2026. Major customers have already made pre-launch commitments.
Worry ifThe product launch is delayed or fails to secure commitments from major customers.
Why it matters: An increase in SG&A expenses could signal a shift away from the company's goal of maintaining low costs.
Worry ifSG&A expenses remain at or below the current low level of $1 million.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses rise above $1 million in Q3 2026.