Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Rallybio Corp (RLYB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.69-1.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RLYB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating losses remain controlled near recent levels | Operating losses are around $8.7M in Q1 2026, showing manageable costs. | Intact | Operating losses exceed -$9M per quarter persistently | Operating income: $-3.423M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating losses no worse than -$9M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 2026-3,423,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder: the company is loss-making and reported no revenue in Q3. The thesis is in a watch state, with a recent recovery signal but volatile management, high risk, and limited evidence that the newly stated plans are being delivered.
The valuation model has low confidence and points to a premium of about 11% versus peers, despite the value factor labeling the shares cheap. Optionality, or the possibility that future pipeline progress creates value, appears to drive this gap, but the evidence does not show how much success the market assumes.
Near term, results remain uncertain: Q3 operating income was negative, revenue was absent, and the estimated risk of a next-quarter miss is elevated. Management has stated priorities around completing the Avenzo merger, advancing its oncology pipeline, and funding milestones, but closing conditions remain and the supplied financials do not establish clinical progress or delivered funding.
The multi-year view hinges on merger completion, financing, and meaningful clinical progress in Avenzo’s pipeline. Near term, a guidance cut or further job-market weakening would add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from major Healthcare companies could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RLYB remains a high-risk, loss-making clinical-stage story with potential tied to an unproven merger and pipeline transition. The recent recovery signal is encouraging but does not yet establish operating delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Advancement of clinical trials in rare diseases |
| The company has a promising pipeline in rare diseases, supported by expert management. |
| Improving |
| No clinical progress or negative trial results in 2026-2027 |
Qualitative: Merger with Avenzo approved Shareholders approved the Avenzo merger and special cash distribution, advancing the company's growth and clinical objectives. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete integration of Avenzo and Candid acquisitions | Rallybio is advancing with acquisitions, completing deals with Candid and Avenzo. | Improving | Failure to integrate acquisitions or pipeline delays beyond 2026 | Merger approved 2026-11-04 vs end-2026 target Rallybio shareholders approved the Avenzo merger and special cash distribution on Nov 4, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.60 → $-11.52 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.60 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-11.52 | $87,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.