Rambus (RMBS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.90-5.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RMBS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RMBS — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-09-04
Chief Accounting Officer — John Allen: The Chief Accounting Officer is retiring with a named successor appointed to ensure an orderly transition, which is not considered a sudden loss of executive talent.
Why it matters: Q3 product revenue reached a record $114.3 million. Another rise would show continued demand for Rambus chips.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 product revenue is above $133 million.
Worry ifQ4 2026 product revenue is below $127 million.
Why it matters: Management guided to $227 million to $233 million after record Q3 revenue. Revenue above that range would extend the recent growth run.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue is above $233 million.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $227 million.
Why it matters: Q3 cash from operations set a record, but it can vary by quarter. A sharp fall would weaken the cash-generation record.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $61.2 million for two straight quarters.
Less concerning ifCash from operations stays at or above $61.2 million in each of the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Management said Q4 revenue needs new customer deals. A miss would show that the guided sales were not secured.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $227 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue is at least $227 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $791 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,289 loss on $10,000 · 52.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Rambus said the buyback was due to finish by Q3 end. Completion would confirm the stated capital plan.
Supportive ifRambus says the $100 million accelerated buyback is complete. It gives the final share count.
Worry ifRambus says the buyback is still incomplete after Q3. Or its next filing gives no update on completion.