Rambus (RMBS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$85.46+1.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RMBS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
RMBS — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-09-04
Chief Accounting Officer — John Allen: The Chief Accounting Officer is retiring with a named successor appointed to ensure an orderly transition, which is not considered a sudden loss of executive talent.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below this level could signal a slowdown in demand for Rambus products.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports Rambus's growth plans and financial health. It is crucial for funding operations and investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $83.2M. This shows strong efficiency.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $70M. This would raise concerns about performance.
Why it matters: Going over this level shows strong demand for Rambus' AI and data center products.
Supportive ifQ3 product revenue was over $116 million.
Worry ifQ3 product revenue was below $110 million.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and pricing power. Lower margins may mean problems.
Watch forGross profit margin reported above 38%.
Also watch forGross profit margin reported below 34%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$280 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $870 loss on $10,000 · 8.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,148 loss on $10,000 · 51.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control and pricing power. This helps long-term profits.
Supportive ifGross profit margin reported above 37%.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 37%.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change how a company manages finances. This could affect growth and investor confidence.
Watch forSumeet Gagneja uses new financial strategies. These strategies help improve cash flow and margins.
Also watch forThere are no clear improvements in cash flow or margins. This is after Gagneja's strategies.
Why it matters: Achieving this range would show Rambus's ability to sustain product sales growth. It reflects demand for its AI-related products.
Supportive ifProduct revenue over $101M shows strong market demand. It also shows good sales strategies.
Worry ifProduct revenue under $95M suggests falling sales. This points to possible market challenges.
Why it matters: Completing this program shows that management cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows they believe in the company's financial health.
Supportive ifThe share repurchase program is completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe program is not completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this guidance shows strong demand for Rambus' products. This is true for AI and data centers.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $210 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $210 million.
Why it matters: Strong product revenue growth shows Rambus is doing well in AI and data center markets.
Supportive ifProduct revenue growth reported above 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifProduct revenue growth reported below 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow shows strong operations. This helps with future investments and share buybacks.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $60 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $60 million in Q3 2026.