Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.25+3.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ROCK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
ROCK — divestiture
Dated 2026-07-16
Other Events On July 15, 2026, Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) sold assets related to its Renewables racking and foundations business for $5 million, subject to customary post-closing adjustments, to Unirac, the leading manufacturer of solar PV mounting systems in North America. This sale completes the divestiture of the Company’s Renewables business, which was classified as held for sale and reported as discontinued operations in the Company's consolidated financial statements eff…
Why it matters: Growth in net sales shows recovery in the home market and good acquisitions.
Supportive ifNet sales in Q2 2026 exceed $356.3 million reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet sales in Q2 2026 fall below $356.3 million.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control. This can lead to making more money.
Supportive ifGross profit margins exceed 25% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifGross profit margins drop below 20% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Successful price increases can help offset inflation. This would improve profit margins.
Supportive ifManagement says material costs will improve next quarter due to price increases.
Worry ifIf price increases do not offset inflation, margins will shrink.
Why it matters: Good cash flow shows strong financial health. It can help with future investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains positive in the next earnings report.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative again in the next earnings report.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $492 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,465 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A strong backlog in Agtech shows future profits and steady operations.
Supportive ifAgtech backlog increases to over $80 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifAgtech backlog decreases below $60 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the Residential segment is important for total revenue and profit.
Supportive ifResidential segment sales increase year over year by more than 10% in Q2.
Worry ifResidential segment sales decline or grow less than 10% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is essential for debt management and future investments. It reflects the company's financial health.
Supportive ifCash from continuing operations exceeds $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from ongoing operations is below $30 million. This raises worries about cash.
Why it matters: Strong backlog in Agtech can raise revenue and support growth plans.
Supportive ifAgtech backlog converts to orders with an increase in bookings in Q2.
Worry ifAgtech backlog decreases or fails to convert to orders in Q2.
Why it matters: Price hikes will help keep margins steady as costs rise. This is key for profit.
Watch forGibraltar is raising prices for several brands. This will increase profits in the next quarter.
Also watch forPrice increases fail to improve margins or lead to further margin declines in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is keeping costs low during inflation.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA margin is over 17.6%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 17.6%. This shows cost challenges continue.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for debt reduction and overall financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifGross profit margins increase by more than 2% compared to Q1.
Worry ifGross profit margins decrease or stay flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Integrating OmniMax well is important. It helps cut costs and raises profit margins.
Supportive ifCompletion of at least 700 integration milestones by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 500 milestones completed by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A stable or growing backlog in Agtech shows strong revenue potential and project success.
Supportive ifAgtech backlog stabilizes or grows from $66.2 million, showing strong demand.
Worry ifIf Agtech backlog keeps declining, it suggests project delays or low demand.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is on track. Investors will focus on this.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong backlog conversion in Infrastructure can signal future revenue growth. This is vital for overall performance.
Supportive ifGibraltar turns at least 20% of its Infrastructure backlog into sales next quarter.
Worry ifLess than 10% of the Infrastructure backlog converts into sales in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that management's focus is working. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2 last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to Q2 last year.
Why it matters: Good price management can help keep profits up during rising costs.
Supportive ifManagement is raising prices for many brands. This will help profits in Q3 2026.
Worry ifProfits drop more if price hikes are not done by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the Residential segment is key for the company's success.
Supportive ifResidential segment revenue grows year over year by more than 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifResidential segment revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful price increases can balance rising costs and boost profits.
Supportive ifGood material cost results were reported in Q2. This followed price increases in March and April.
Worry ifBad material cost results were reported in Q2. This happened despite price increases.
Why it matters: Selling the Renewables business helps focus on main work.
Supportive ifManagement says the sale is done and they focus on key areas.
Worry ifThe sale does not close or causes unexpected issues.
Why it matters: Higher commodity prices may hurt profits and margins.
Worry ifGross margins rise even with higher commodity prices because of good pricing.
Less concerning ifGross margins fall as commodity prices rise without price increases.