Rockwell Automation (ROK)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$433.81+1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ROK
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $434 ROK trades at 34× p/e, below its 34× p/e peer median, but our blended $383 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $485–$545. Note: our $383 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($485–$545). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $487 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $501.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $394.09 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $503.37 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $79.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$485.00 – $545.00 (median $501.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-09-02
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.88/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $95.28 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $513.86 | 38.1 | 13.48 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $436.81 | 33.9 | 12.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $290.35 | 3.6 | 80.40 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $502.05 | 39.0 | 12.88 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $68.50 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $466.70 | 36.2 | 12.88 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $467.86 | 33.9 | 13.80 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $781.52 | 38.1 | 20.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $504.29 | 33.9 | 14.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $310.10 | 3.6 | 85.87 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $579.62 | 39.0 | 14.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $538.81 | 36.2 | 14.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1033.56 | 38.1 | 27.11 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $507.33 | 33.9 | 14.96 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $311.97 | 3.6 | 86.39 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $583.11 | 39.0 | 14.96 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $542.05 | 36.2 | 14.96 | Analyst | high |