Rockwell Automation (ROK)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$433.81+1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ROK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ROK — director transition
Dated 2026-04-17
Director — David A. Zapico: The Board of Directors elected David A. Zapico as a new director and increased the board size from ten to eleven.
Why it matters: This would indicate strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $200 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into financial health and growth prospects.
Watch forEarnings report shows a big beat on revenue and EPS.
Also watch forEarnings report misses on revenue and EPS.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend growth rate can show how management views cash flow and profits.
Watch forDividend growth rate increases above 10%.
Also watch forDividend growth rate decreases or stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Changes in share buybacks can show management's trust in cash flow and growth.
Watch forShare buybacks rise sharply above $145 million in a quarter.
Also watch forShare buybacks drop or stop significantly from current levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $287 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,872 loss on $10,000 · 18.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth shows a good change in the business cycle.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up to over 6% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth slows down to below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: David Zapico's experience may shape Rockwell's growth plans. This could affect investor views.
Watch forManagement shares a new plan linked to Zapico's skills.
Also watch forNo new plans are shared after Zapico's appointment.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows financial strength. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $1.38 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $1.38 per share.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations helps financial health. It also allows for growth investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $320 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $320 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up again, it shows strong performance and good earnings growth.
Supportive ifEPS guidance raised above $13.02 for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifEPS guidance remains at or below $12.72 - $13.02.
Why it matters: Sustained high organic sales growth would confirm strong demand across key markets.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported above 9% for Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth reported below 7.5% for Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Steady ARR growth shows strong revenue and keeps customers coming back.
Supportive ifTotal ARR growth reported above 6% year over year.
Worry ifTotal ARR growth reported below 5% year over year.