Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Rockwell Automation (ROK)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$381.05-14.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.67 → 16.61 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ROK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share at least $1.38 in 2026-Q1 | Dividends rose from $1.25 to $1.38 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $1.38 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $1.38 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.38 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 20261.38 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ROK looks like an established industrial business with improving execution, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The evidence labels valuation as expensive, while also showing ROK as cheap versus peers, so the relative comparison is mixed. Expectations appear stretched, with a 0.12 expectations gap, but price fragility is low and the recent reaction to results has been muted.
Near-term results show management raising fiscal 2026 EPS guidance and delivering sales growth and margin expansion. Recent earnings beats and a low estimated miss risk support the execution case, though industry peers have missed lately and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth and margins without reversing its recent guidance increase, which would damage credibility. Sector signals also matter: continued strength at GEV, PH, and EMR could support industrial momentum, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ROK’s execution supports an intact multi-year view, but expensive valuation, sector weakness, and the risk of a guidance reversal remain important limits. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Rockwell Automation grows earnings with raised EPS guidance to $12.18 in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below $11.88 for FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $8.9 billion for fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Rockwell Automation's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.9 USD billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue guidance falls below $8.9 billion for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.67 → $16.61 · observed estimates
$10.19B → $10.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $16.67 | $10,193,991,247 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.67 | $10,193,991,247 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.67 | $10,193,991,247 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.67 | $10,193,981,630 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.67 | $10,193,981,630 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.67 | $10,193,981,630 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.67 | $10,193,981,630 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.67 | $10,192,814,963 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.67 | $10,192,814,963 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.67 | $10,188,298,386 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.67 | $10,188,298,386 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.67 | $10,188,298,386 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.67 | $10,188,298,386 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.67 | $10,188,298,386 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.63 | $10,183,403,650 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.61 | $10,183,403,650 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.61 | $10,183,403,650 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.60 | $10,182,031,529 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.61 | $10,185,442,973 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.61 | $10,185,442,973 | 10 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.