Rockwell Automation (ROK)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$433.81+1.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at least $11.88 per share: EPS guidance $12.87 vs $11.88 target.
Rockwell Automation grows earnings with raised EPS guidance to $12.18 in 2026. Sales are strong with $8.9 billion revenue guidance. Dividends rose from $1.25 to $1.38 per share. The company beats earnings and revenue estimates consistently.
Revenue growth may slow below 6% as sector faces headwinds. Profit margins could shrink if costs rise. The stock trades expensive with a PE near 39.
The price is about 25% above our fair value near $382. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is below the Street median, so the market is stretched.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $1.38 in 2026-Q1
Management is committed to maintaining a steady growth in dividends.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent positive earnings and management's commitment to key priorities.
The valuation appears expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market seems to be pricing in continued strong performance, as indicated by the premium over peer valuations.
Management is on track to achieve its goals of increasing earnings per share (EPS) and expanding revenue and margins. Recent financial performance has been neutral, but the company has shown resilience with a low probability of missing future targets.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to report strong earnings, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ROK. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact ROK's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view of revenue growth. Additionally, strong performance in recent quarters reinforces the company's growth potential. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $11.88 for FY26
Continue to raise fiscal 2026 diluted and adjusted EPS guidance reflecting strong execution and margin expansion.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS guidance was raised from $10.75 - $11.55 in 2026-Q1 to $12.72 - $13.02 in 2026-Q2, and Adjusted EPS guidance from $11.40 - $12.20 to $13.00 - $13.30. Management consistently updated EPS guidance upward reflecting strong execution and margin expansion, delivering on this priority.
“Updates fiscal 2026 diluted EPS guidance range to $11.88 - $12.48 and Adjusted EPS guidance range to $12.50 - $13.10.”
“Updates fiscal 2026 diluted EPS guidance range to $10.75 - $11.55 and Adjusted EPS guidance range to $11.40 - $12.20.”
“Fiscal 2026 guidance: Diluted EPS $10.40 - $11.40; Adjusted EPS $11.20 - $12.20.”
“Updates fiscal 2025 diluted EPS guidance range to $8.89 - $9.29; updates Adjusted EPS guidance range to $9.80 - $10.20.”
Breaks if: Revenue guidance falls below $8.9 billion for FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ROK's performance will depend on its ability to maintain growth and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.