Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ridgepost Capital, Inc. (RPC)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.68+2.98%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.16 → 1.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RPC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt levels after $139 million drawdown | Ridgepost Capital is growing revenue with a target above $297 million in 2026. | Intact | Debt servicing issues or cash flow impairment due to leverage | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RPC is a financial-services growth story, with progress tied to growing fee-paying assets under management and expanding its capabilities. The long-term thesis is intact, but its signal has softened from mildly favorable to mixed after a recent earnings miss.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes RPC as cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions leave limited room for disappointment; valuation-model confidence is medium.
Near term, fee-paying assets under management grew from about $31 billion in the first quarter to nearly $35 billion in the second, and total assets under management passed $50 billion. Management also completed its Stellus acquisition, which expands private-credit capabilities. The recent earnings miss and elevated risk remain concerns, although the stated near-term miss risk is low.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in fee-paying assets and successful integration of the acquisition. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while falling interest rates could weigh on financials; continued strong results and guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RPC has evidence of business expansion, but its mixed signal, recent earnings miss, and expensive overall valuation leave the thesis sensitive to execution and financial-sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit remains solid with operating income near $19.6 million in Q1. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $19.6 million over next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $17.724M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $19.6 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202617,724,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Ridgepost Capital delivered strong and consistent third-quarter results, as fee-paying AUM increased 21% year-over-year to more than $35 billion while margins through the first nine months of 2026 were stable year-over-year,” said Luke Sarsfield, Ridgepost Capital Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.” “With significant momentum across the business, we believe our unique positioning within the middle and lower-middle markets, expanding investment capabilities, and durable fee-based model position Ridgepost Capital to continue delivering attractive growth, expanding earnings power, and creating long-term value for our stakeholders.”” Operating income was $17.724 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue guidance of at least $297 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Ridgepost Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $297 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $297 million in FY26 | Revenue: $80.914M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $297 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202680,914,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.19 → $1.15 · observed estimates
$0.41B → $0.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.19 | $405,619,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.21 | $405,522,690 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.21 | $405,522,690 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.19 | $405,619,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.21 | $405,522,690 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.21 | $405,522,690 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.19 | $405,619,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.19 | $405,619,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.19 | $405,619,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.21 | $405,522,690 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.19 | $405,619,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.19 | $405,619,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.21 | $405,522,690 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.21 | $405,522,690 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.20 | $415,956,020 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.20 | $415,956,020 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.20 | $415,956,020 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.20 | $416,052,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.16 | $416,719,641 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.15 | $426,101,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.15 | $426,101,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.15 | $426,101,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.15 | $427,501,753 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.