Reliance, Inc. (RS)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$400.51+0.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
RS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-18
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the Company’s press release dated February 18, 2026 announcing the Company’s financial results for this period. The information contained in this report and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amen…
Why it matters: Progress on these contracts could bring in a lot of revenue for Reliance.
Watch forThere are updates on the $2.24 billion border wall contract. Progress is being made.
Also watch forThere are delays or problems with the awarded contracts.
Why it matters: News about government contracts shows if revenue is steady. It also shows growth from important projects.
Supportive ifPublic announcements about progress or new awards for the border wall or Joint Strike Fighter.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays on these government contracts.
Why it matters: A stable gross profit margin shows good cost management and pricing. If the margin is above 28%, it shows strong profitability. If it drops below this, it raises worries about costs.
Supportive ifGross profit margin remains above 28% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 28% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth signals that Reliance is on track with its growth goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year compared to Q1's $4.03B.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping a pretax income margin above 9% shows strong profits. If it drops below this, it may mean rising costs or weaker pricing power.
Supportive ifPretax income margin remains above 9% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifPretax income margin drops below 9% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in tons sold would signal weakening demand and could impact revenue growth. It would test management's growth strategy.
Worry ifReported tons sold below 1,600 in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTons sold remain above 1,600 in Q2 2026, indicating strong demand.
Why it matters: Higher LIFO costs might mean rising expenses. This can affect how much money the company makes.
Worry ifLIFO expense in Q3 2026 exceeds $54 million.
Less concerning ifLIFO expense in Q3 2026 is $54 million or lower.
Why it matters: Updates on the border wall project show Reliance's ability to get and manage big contracts. This affects revenue and market position.
Supportive ifLook for news about new phases or contract extensions for the border wall project.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the border wall project show possible issues.
Why it matters: Growth in net income means more profit. This is important for long-term success.
Supportive ifNet income in Q2 exceeds $300M, reflecting strong performance.
Worry ifNet income in Q2 falls below $250M.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means Reliance is cutting costs. This fits with management's goals.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 is over $400M. This shows improvement.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 falls below $350M.
Why it matters: Sector growth can boost Reliance's performance. It shows if the industry is recovering.
Watch forMaterials sector revenue growth rises above 2% year over year.
Also watch forMaterials sector revenue growth drops below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher contributions from government contracts support management's growth plans. If contributions are over $0.20 per share, it shows strong project work. If they are lower, it raises worries about project success.
Supportive ifGovernment contract contributions exceed $0.20 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGovernment contract contributions fall below $0.20 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in tons sold would signal a seasonal slowdown. This could impact revenue growth expectations.
Worry ifReported tons sold decline by 2% to 4% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTons sold remain stable or increase compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in selling price indicates strong pricing power. This can support revenue and profit growth.
Supportive ifAverage selling price per ton sold increases by 1% to 3% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifAverage selling price per ton sold decreases or remains flat compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This project has raised earnings a lot. Ongoing support will help growth.
Supportive ifEarnings include a contribution of at least $0.15 per share from the border wall project.
Worry ifContributions from the border wall project fall below $0.15 per share.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows strong operations. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income goes up each year for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income decreases or does not grow year-over-year for Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,904 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.