Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RxSight, Inc. (RXST)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.99+8.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RXST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Develop and commercialize light-adjustable lenses with Alcon | A supporting condition in RxSight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Successful product development and commercialization with Alcon. | Improving | The Alcon collaboration fails or is delayed beyond 1 year | Qualitative: Alcon deal signed 2026-06-30, adds $30M-$40M to 2026 revenue RxSight signed a definitive agreement with Alcon on June 30, 2026, to develop light-adjustable lenses, adding $30M-$40M to 2026 revenue guidance. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth business with fragile earnings quality and a loss-making profile. Management’s 2026 revenue and gross-margin goals are on track, but recent performance remains weak versus its industry cohort, so the long-term thesis is not yet firmly established.
The valuation evidence points to RXST being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. The model has low confidence, so that relative discount is not a clear signal that the business risks are fully reflected in expectations.
Near term, management’s 2026 revenue guidance includes $30 million to $40 million from the Alcon collaboration, and its gross-margin guidance rose to 73% to 75% after a 76.7% Q2 result. Expense control is mixed, with management expecting costs at the high end of its range; weak recent performance and erratic earnings results remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on delivering the 2026 revenue and margin goals while keeping expenses controlled. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weakening jobs data could add pressure to cyclical healthcare names.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RXST has a growth opportunity supported by its collaboration and a favorable sector backdrop, but execution risk and weak recent performance leave the thesis in a watch state. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Such statements relate to future events or our future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our or our industry's actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements expressed, implied or inferred by these forward-looking statements.” “In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as "may," "will," "should," "could," "would," "expects," "plans," "intends," "anticipates," "believes," "estimates," "predicts," "projects," "potential," or "continue" or the negative of such terms and other similar terminology.”
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026Maintain gross margin near 71% in 2026 | Gross margin should stay near 71%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 70% in FY26 | Gross margin: 76.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 70% to 72%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202676.719718 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Control operating expenses within $150 to $160 million in 2026 | They control costs within $150 to $160 million. | Intact | Operating expenses exceed $160 million in FY26 | Operating margin: -75.32% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating expenses <= $160 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-75.319287 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Such statements relate to future events or our future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our or our industry's actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements expressed, implied or inferred by these forward-looking statements.” “Updated Product Pipeline RxSight is developing the first and only suite of adjustable IOLs built on its next-generation Light Adjustable Lens technology platform with improved workflow and enhanced performance.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue of $120 to $135 million in 2026 | A primary condition in RxSight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $120 million and <= $135 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $120 million in FY26 | Revenue: $24.586M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $120 million and <= $135 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202624,586,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.19 → $-1.22 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.19 | $146,329,078 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.56 | $146,334,050 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.56 | $146,334,050 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.56 | $146,334,050 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.56 | $146,334,050 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.67 | $145,103,180 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.19 | $146,329,078 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.19 | $145,098,710 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.19 | $145,098,710 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.67 | $145,103,180 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.19 | $145,098,710 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.67 | $145,103,180 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.67 | $145,103,180 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.67 | $144,947,290 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.74 | $148,199,110 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.74 | $148,199,110 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.74 | $148,199,110 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.70 | $149,375,110 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.19 | $149,792,485 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.19 | $149,792,485 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.19 | $149,792,485 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.19 | $149,792,485 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.19 | $149,792,485 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.19 | $149,792,485 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.19 | $149,792,485 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.17 | $149,336,273 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.17 | $149,331,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.17 | $149,333,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.17 | $149,113,743 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.16 | $149,118,103 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.22 | $125,022,082 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.