Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. (RYAM)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.50-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RYAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 79.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RYAM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 4, 2026, Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended June 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the…
Why it matters: Stabilization in performance shows the new CEO is having a good effect.
Watch forA rise in operating income or EBITDA in Q2 2026 compared to Q1.
Also watch forMore drops in operating income or EBITDA in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the sector could help Rayonier. It may improve their market position and performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported as positive for the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported as negative for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA is key for RYAM's recovery. It shows that things are getting better.
Supportive ifQ3 EBITDA is over $40 million. This shows continued improvement from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 EBITDA is below $40 million. This shows a setback in operations.
Why it matters: Stable leadership can help the company do better. It may also boost investor trust.
Watch forThe company does better after the new CEO starts using new strategies.
Also watch forThe company may do poorly or face more leadership problems after the change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $649 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,000 loss on $10,000 · 40.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is crucial for RYAM's financial health. It will show that the company is stabilizing after recent losses.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q3 2026 is positive. This shows better cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow stays negative in Q3 2026. This shows ongoing volatility.
Why it matters: More leadership changes can show instability. This may affect the company's plans and goals.
Worry ifA new CEO or other key executive appointments are announced.
Less concerning ifNo further executive changes announced for the next six months.
Why it matters: Results from the strategic review could affect future plans and shareholder value.
Watch forThere may be announcements about actions or partnerships from the review.
Also watch forThere are no announcements or delays in the strategic review.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may show a change in the declining materials sector.
Supportive ifReported revenue growth turns positive compared to the previous year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: The strategic review's outcome will shape RYAM's future direction and value creation. Investors will look for clarity on the company's path forward.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear plan to increase shareholder value by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo clear plan or options are shared by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is important for RYAM's finances and growth plans. It shows stability.
Supportive ifRYAM reports positive free cash flow in Q3 2026. This shows better cash generation.
Worry ifRYAM reports negative free cash flow in Q3 2026. This shows cash generation problems.
Why it matters: EBITDA growth shows how well RYAM is doing. It helps see if RYAM can exceed 2025 levels.
Supportive ifRYAM reports Q3 2026 EBITDA over $40 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 2026 EBITDA is under $40 million. This shows RYAM has operational issues.