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Safety Insurance Group, Inc.NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$71.81-0.08%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SAFT trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis hinges on whether SAFT cuts guidance on the next call, as that could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Property & Casualty
- Market cap
- $1.04B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2002-04-26
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$64.42consensus
Range $44.34 – $93.56
vs price: +11% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$156.44consensus
Range $134.18 – $237.92
vs price: -54% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $72 the market pays 18× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 16× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $64 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.2x
peer 10.9x · own history 16.3x
Premium
1.7x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
11%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$64.42
range $44.34 – $92.95
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
12th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
86th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.headwind-3.0%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 2 guided quarters · -2.1% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$207.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,490.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for unemployment claims data on June 4, 2026
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This can lower insurance demand and profits.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Unemployment claims reported above 250,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims reported below 200,000 for the week.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SAFT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting SAFT and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SAFT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-03), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SAFT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-03), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on SAFT and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping SAFT and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. In a press release dated May 6, 2026, Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Registrant”) announced its first quarter 2026 results. The Registrant’s press release dated May 6, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.