Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$81.00+1.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
SAH — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-30
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 30, 2026, in the Earnings Press Release, the Company announced the approval of a quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: Better gross profit margins show improved cost control and stronger pricing power.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is expected to be above 66% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 66% in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Same-store sales trends indicate how well Sonic is competing in its core market.
Watch forSame-store sales in Franchised Dealerships increase year over year by at least 3% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forSame-store sales in Franchised Dealerships drop year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show how much management trusts cash flow and profits.
Watch forManagement raises the cash dividend to more than $0.41 per share.
Also watch forManagement lowers the cash dividend to less than $0.41 per share.
Why it matters: Starting buybacks shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders. It shows they believe in the company's future.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks under the new $500 million plan.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported within the next quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $379 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,314 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sonic has a $500 million share buyback plan. More buybacks show they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifSonic repurchases at least $100 million worth of shares in Q2.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks happen in Q2. This shows there are problems with execution.
Why it matters: Higher profit margins show good cost control and smart pricing.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 16% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or stays below 16% in Q2.
Why it matters: Consistent revenue growth is key for Sonic's long-term plans and market position.
Worry ifQ2 2026 total revenues exceed $3.8 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 total revenues fall below $3.5 billion.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows Sonic can bounce back from recent drops. It shows the company is strong in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in the EchoPark segment would show Sonic's successful execution of its strategy. It is key to the company's overall performance.
Supportive ifEchoPark segment income grows year over year by at least 10%.
Worry ifEchoPark's income goes down compared to last year.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong cash flow and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifSonic announces a dividend increase above the current $0.41 per share.
Worry ifSonic maintains the dividend at $0.41 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: Growth in used vehicle sales helps EchoPark make more money. It shows management is doing well.
Supportive ifEchoPark sells more used vehicles. Sales grow over 17% each year.
Worry ifEchoPark's retail used vehicle sales volume grows less than 10% each year.
Why it matters: Buying Harley-Davidson dealerships is important for more revenue. Success shows Sonic's growth plan is working.
Supportive ifPowersports makes over $100 million more each year. This is after the acquisitions.
Worry ifPowersports revenue does not grow or falls each year.
Why it matters: News about the dividend payment shows Sonic cares about its shareholders. It shows financial strength.
Supportive ifThe company pays the quarterly cash dividend of $0.41 per share on October 15, 2026.
Worry ifThe company stops or cuts the quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: Changes in SG&A costs can affect profits. A drop means better cost control.
Watch forSG&A expenses as a percentage of gross profit decreases below 72.0%.
Also watch forSG&A expenses as a percentage of gross profit increases above 73.0%.