Saia (SAIA)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$335.17-7.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAIA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SAIA — director transition
Dated 2026-10-29
Director — Todd C. Fowler: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to fill an expanded board seat, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Saia reported $235.9 million in net capital spending through September and gave a full-year figure near $350 million. A large miss would change the capital spending picture.
Watch forSaia reports full-year 2026 net capital spending of $315 million to $385 million.
Also watch forSaia reports 2026 net capital spending below $315 million or above $385 million.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue and tonnage set records, but the operating ratio rose from 85.9% a year ago. A lower ratio would show costs are not eating up the growth.
Watch forQ4 operating ratio is below 87.6%.
Also watch forQ4 operating ratio is above 87.6%.
Why it matters: The board approved a new share repurchase plan. Actual purchases would show the company is using the plan, while no purchases would leave execution unproven.
Supportive ifA company filing or report states that Saia bought shares under the plan.
Worry ifA later company report says no shares were bought under the plan.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue per shipment rose 5.8% year over year, showing stronger pricing and mix. A slowdown would weaken that progress.
Watch forQ4 revenue per shipment, excluding fuel, grows at least 5.8% year over year.
Also watch forQ4 revenue per shipment, excluding fuel, grows less than 5.8% year over year or declines.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $439 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,344 loss on $10,000 · 33.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The supplied event log lists an acquisition announcement, but gives no deal terms or status. A filed update could show whether it adds to Saia’s national network.
Watch forA company filing names the acquired business and confirms the deal closed. Or it lists clear steps to combine the businesses.
Also watch forA company filing says the deal was canceled, delayed, or no longer moving forward.