Saia (SAIA)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$357.94+3.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAIA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
SAIA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 10, 2026 Saia, Inc. issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter 2025 results. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall…
Why it matters: A lower operational ratio means better cost control and efficiency. This is key for profit.
Supportive ifThe operational ratio is below 90% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe operational ratio is above 91% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth above 2.4% shows strong demand and good pricing.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 2.4% year-over-year. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 2.4%, suggesting demand weakness or pricing issues.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Saia's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to about 8% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operations mean lower costs and better service. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up from Q1 2026 to Q2 2026. This shows better efficiency.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or remains flat from Q1 2026 to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The Saia REV initiative aims to improve customer experience and efficiency. This could boost revenue.
Supportive ifThere are clear improvements in transit times and customer satisfaction from the Saia REV plan.
Worry ifNo big improvements from the Saia REV plan in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows Saia can handle market challenges. It also improves how they operate.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in Q1 2026 was 2.4%, indicating a positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth drops below 1% compared to prior year.
Why it matters: Strong tonnage growth shows better demand and efficiency in Saia's national network.
Supportive ifLTL tonnage per workday in Q3 2026 increases by more than 8% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifLTL tonnage per workday in Q3 2026 increases by less than 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Higher diesel costs can hurt profits and increase operating costs.
Worry ifNational average diesel prices increase more than 10% in a month.
Less concerning ifDiesel prices stabilize or decrease over the same period.
Why it matters: Fast increases in diesel costs can hurt profits. This is due to timing in surcharges.
Worry ifDiesel prices increase by more than 30% within a few days in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDiesel prices stabilize or increase by less than 20% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Rising fuel costs can hurt profit margins. Keeping an eye on this is important.
Worry ifFuel costs rise a lot, which hurts operating margins.
Less concerning ifFuel costs stabilize or decrease, leading to improved margins.
Why it matters: New terminals can enhance service capabilities and drive growth in new markets.
Supportive ifNew terminal openings were announced for Q3. This will expand service reach.
Worry ifNo new terminal openings were announced in Q3. This may show operational limits.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue growth is key for Saia's performance. It shows market demand.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher renewal rates show strong customer loyalty and good pricing.
Supportive ifContractual renewals are over 10.7%. This shows strong customer loyalty.
Worry ifContractual renewals are below 10.7%. This suggests pricing or service issues.
Why it matters: A lower claims ratio means the company works better and serves customers well.
Supportive ifCargo claims ratio is below 0.5%. This shows better service quality.
Worry ifCargo claims ratio is above 0.5%. This suggests possible service problems.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue per shipment shows good pricing and mix management. This helps profits.
Supportive ifRevenue per shipment, not counting fuel surcharge, rises by over 1.5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue per shipment, not counting fuel surcharge, rises by less than 1% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $454 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,193 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.