Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
Sanmina Corporation (SANM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$130.23-9.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.70 → 16.24 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SANM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations stays above $398M in Q2 2026 | Cash from operations also doubled to nearly $400M. | Broken | Cash from operations falls below $398M in Q2 2026 | Cash from operations: $124.491M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $398M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 27, 2026124,491,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SANM is a growth-and-margin improvement story in a neutral sector backdrop, rather than a clear defensive business. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, though confidence has eased from high to medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: SANM is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 0.5 premium versus peers. The overall priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not show that expectations are unusually stretched.
Near term, revenue growth and operating margins have improved, and management’s stated priorities on both are on track. Cash generation is less steady: operating cash flow and free cash flow fell in the latest quarter, while elevated risk and a history of a deep miss remain relevant.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on SANM sustaining growth and margin progress without reversing its recently raised guidance, which could hurt management credibility. A Fed rate-cut cycle or steadier results and guidance from technology peers could support the sector backdrop, but neither is established in the evidence.
For the 1 to 3 year view, recent execution supports an intact thesis, while uneven cash flow, elevated risk, and medium confidence call for a measured reading. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Sanmina Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $157M. |
| Improving |
| Operating income falls below $157M in Q2 2026 |
Operating income: $221.225M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $157M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 27, 2026221,225,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $13.7B in fiscal Q3 2026 | A primary condition in Sanmina Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.7B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $13.7B in fiscal Q3 2026 | Revenue: $3.464B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.7B. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Jul 27, 20263,464,016,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revenue was at the high end of our outlook, while non-GAAP operating margin and non-GAAP diluted EPS exceeded our outlook,” stated Jure Sola, Chairman and CEO of Sanmina Corporation.” “In addition, core Sanmina grew 7.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations.”” Revenue was $3.464 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.70 → $16.24 · observed estimates
$18.31B → $19.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.70 | $18,311,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.24 | $19,408,133,333 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.