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SBRA
Sabra Health Care REITNASDAQReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$18.73+1.30%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that cash flow does not consistently back reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Healthcare Facilities
- Market cap
- $4.77B
- Employees
- 58
- IPO date
- 2010-11-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$18.93consensus
Range $9.78 – $20.52
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$22.44consensus
Range $10.57 – $28.42
vs price: -17% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $19 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $19 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $21–$22. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
27.1x
peer 14.8x · own history 28.2x
Premium
1.8x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
0%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$18.73
range $9.84 – $20.58
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
40th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
64th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -4.7% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.17 (-4.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$190.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,610.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop stayed a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4 and June 11, 2026
Why it matters: Rising unemployment can affect Sabra's tenants and their ability to pay rent. This could impact Sabra's revenue.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Unemployment claims are lower than before. This shows the job market is getting stronger.
Disproves:Unemployment claims are higher than before. This shows the economy is getting weaker.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SBRA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SBRA and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, VTR, and OHI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting SBRA and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SBRA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SBRA cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, VTR, and OHI start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping SBRA and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. (“Sabra”) issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the three month period ended March 31, 2026. The press release refers to the Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures that is available on the Investors section of Sabra’s website, free of charge, at www.sabrahealth.com. The text of the press release and the Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures are furnished her…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.