Service Corp Intl (SCI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$75.45-2.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SCI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 28, 2026 , Service Corporation International issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of this press release, dated October 28, 2026 , is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is not deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Why it matters: SCI says future dividends depend on board review of results and cash needs. A cut would signal less room for shareholder returns.
Watch forThe board declares another quarterly dividend of at least $0.36 per share.
Also watch forThe board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.36 per share or does not declare one.
Why it matters: SCI kept its cash flow outlook after a strong Q3. A miss would weaken the case that cash can fund growth and shareholder returns.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted operating cash flow is below $1.055 billion, the low end of SCI's range.
Less concerning ifFull-year adjusted operating cash flow is at least $1.055 billion and reaches the midpoint of $1.085 billion.
Why it matters: SCI cut its full-year EPS range after citing lower funeral volumes and higher costs. Q4 results will test the new outlook.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EPS is below $1.10, below the low end of the $1.10-$1.20 outlook.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EPS is at least $1.10 and full-year adjusted EPS is within $3.94-$4.04.
Why it matters: Lower funeral volumes already led SCI to cut its earnings outlook. A further drop could weigh on results.
Worry ifSCI reports Q4 funeral service volume below the level used in its Q4 outlook.
Less concerning ifQ4 funeral service volume meets or tops the level used in its outlook.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $241 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,161 loss on $10,000 · 21.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Preneed sales grew, but costs and delayed property revenue press on margins now. Higher future revenue would show the investment is paying off.
Supportive ifSales of prepaid funeral and cemetery plans both rise year over year. Cemetery gross margin also rises from Q3.
Worry ifEither preneed sales fall year over year, or cemetery gross margin falls further.