Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Scilex Holding Co (SCLX)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.70-7.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.45 → 0.45 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SCLX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful execution of mergers and acquisitions | Scilex is actively growing through mergers and acquisitions. | Intact | No meaningful M&A deal completed by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth and acquisition story, not an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is marked intact, though management execution is volatile and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to SCLX being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 26% premium, and model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not define its scale or meaning, so the market’s assumptions are hard to pin down.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated because the company has missed in recent quarters, while revenue has fluctuated and losses continue. Management is pursuing acquisitions and strategic partnerships, but the announced investment has not yet shown a direct revenue impact, and reported delivery on repurchases remains limited.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on whether acquisitions and partnerships can support growth despite continued losses. Near-term sector support could persist if healthcare bellwethers keep reporting strong results, while weaker jobs data or bellwether results could weaken that tailwind.
The multi-year view is intact, but it rests on uncertain execution and a path from ongoing losses to stronger business performance. Near-term earnings risk is elevated, and the valuation signals are mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Scilex Holding Co's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.73 in FY27. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains negative or below $0.73 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-16.65 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.73 in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026-16.65 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize and grow revenue | A primary condition in Scilex Holding Co's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 0% in FY27. | Intact | Revenue decline worse than -27% in FY27 | Revenue growth: -22.78% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 0% in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026-22.77688 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execution of announced share buyback programs | The company announced share buybacks to manage capital. | Intact | No buyback program announced or executed in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.45 → $0.45 · observed estimates
$0.19B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.73 | $188,965,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.45 | $188,965,300 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.