ScanSource, Inc. (SCSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$58.48+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SCSC — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-02
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant On September 1, 2026, ScanSource, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced acquisition of all of the issued and outstanding capital stock of MicroAge Acquisition Corp. (“MicroAge”). Subject to customary post-closing working capital adjustments, the purchase price consisted of $220.5 million paid in cash at closing, with $3 million and $6.8 million held in escrow to…
Why it matters: Strong recurring revenue growth shows a healthy business model. It means customers stay.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue growth for Q1 FY27 exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth for Q1 FY27 is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Weak sales growth may show problems in keeping market share and making money.
Worry ifQ4 net sales growth was below 2% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ4 net sales growth exceeds 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will provide insights into revenue, profit margins, and cash flow trends. This is key for assessing company health.
Watch forThe earnings report shows net sales growth over 5% compared to last year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net sales growth below 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in growth for ScanSource, which could worry investors.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $336 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,452 loss on $10,000 · 24.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target shows strong cash flow and good use of funds.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at over $90 million for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $90 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in recurring revenue growth may show problems with keeping customers.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth is below 3% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifRecurring revenue growth is above 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Lower revenue guidance would confirm a weakening growth outlook for ScanSource.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q4 revenue guidance to less than $3.0 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises Q4 revenue guidance to more than $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show weaker demand. This could affect future plans.
Worry ifNet sales growth for Q1 FY27 is reported below 6% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifNet sales growth for Q1 FY27 exceeds 6% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Clear revenue guidance shows growth expectations. It helps us see how the company may perform.
Watch forManagement gives revenue guidance that is higher than what the market expects.
Also watch forRevenue guidance is lower than what the market expects.
Why it matters: Recurring revenue is important for long-term stability. Growth trends show company health.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue grows more than 5% each year.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth drops below 3% each year.
Why it matters: Closing the MicroAge deal could help growth and profits. This fits with management's plan.
Supportive ifThe deal closes on time. There are no regulatory delays or problems.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces significant delays or fails to close by the deadline.
Why it matters: A drop could mean bigger issues in the Information Technology sector. These issues may affect ScanSource.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: If integration is successful, it will help margins and earnings per share.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is on track. They are meeting goals within six months.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays in merging MicroAge. This impacts expected benefits.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding the guidance of at least $85 million will show strong cash generation.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $85 million for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow is below $85 million. This shows weaker cash generation.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving adjusted EBITDA margins is key. It helps profits and investor trust.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 4.70% in fiscal 2027.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 4.70%. This shows possible profit problems.