ScanSource, Inc. (SCSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$45.07-20.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SCSC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 5, 2026, ScanSource, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and accompanying Earnings Infographic are attached as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto, incorporated herein by reference and also made available through the Company’s website at www.scansource.com. An updated investor presentation will be made available on the Company…
Why it matters: FY26 free cash flow was $113.8 million. The FY27 minimum is lower, so the next result will test cash generation.
Worry ifFY27 free cash flow is below $85 million.
Less concerning ifFY27 free cash flow is at least $85 million.
Why it matters: Q4 gross margin fell to 12.6% from 12.9%. Another drop would add to pressure on profit per dollar of sales.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 gross margin is below 12.6%.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 gross margin is above 12.6%.
Why it matters: FY27 guidance calls for $158 million to $165 million in adjusted EBITDA. A result below $39.5 million per quarter would fall short of its low end.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 adjusted EBITDA is below $39.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY27 adjusted EBITDA is at least $39.5 million.
Why it matters: FY26 sales grew 6.1%, and Q4 sales grew 17.3%. Results below the new floor would mark a slowdown.
Worry ifFY27 net sales growth is below 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifFY27 net sales growth lands within or above the 6% to 10% outlook range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $352 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,756 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.