Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC)
NYSEReal EstateResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.21+2.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SDHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SDHC — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-05
and shall be deemed to be furnished, and not filed: Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press release dated November 5, 2025 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: November 5, 2025 SMITH DOUGLAS HOMES CORP. By: /s/ Russell Devendorf Russell Devendorf Executive V…
Why it matters: A slowdown shows less demand for homes. This will hurt future revenue.
Worry ifNet new home orders grow less than 28% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet new home orders increase more than 28% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net new home orders would indicate weakening buyer interest and market challenges.
Worry ifNet new home orders in Q3 decrease year over year worse than -10%.
Less concerning ifNet new home orders in Q3 increase year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in home closing revenue would signal weakening demand in a tough market.
Worry ifQ3 home closing revenue down year over year worse than -8%.
Less concerning ifHome closing revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector accelerates, it could boost Smith Douglas Homes.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 6% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows to below 2% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$216 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $542 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,108 loss on $10,000 · 51.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More active communities can show successful growth. This may lead to higher future sales.
Supportive ifActive community count is above 120.
Worry ifActive community count remains at or below 120.
Why it matters: An increase in this ratio may indicate rising leverage and financial risk.
Worry ifDebt-to-book ratio goes above 15%.
Less concerning ifDebt-to-book ratio stays the same or goes down.
Why it matters: Slower growth in controlled lots may limit how many homes can be built.
Worry ifControlled lots grow less than 14% year over year.
Less concerning ifControlled lots increase more than 14% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher cancellation rates may show buyers are unsure. This can affect future orders.
Worry ifCancellation rate exceeds 15% in Q3.
Less concerning ifCancellation rate stays below 10% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin shows profits are weakening. This happens with rising costs and competition.
Worry ifQ3 home closing gross margin falls below 17%.
Less concerning ifHome closing gross margin remains above 17%.
Why it matters: A decline below this level shows demand is weakening. This is in a competitive housing market.
Worry ifNet new home orders fall below 900 in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet new home orders stay above 900.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show challenges in expanding market presence. It also affects capturing demand.
Worry ifActive community count growth falls below 10% in Q3.
Less concerning ifActive community count growth remains at or above 10%.