Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC)
NYSEReal EstateResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.70-4.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SDHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Q2 margin fell to 17.6% from 23.2% a year ago. A further drop would add pressure to already lower earnings.
Worry ifQ3 home closing gross margin is below 17.6%.
Less concerning ifQ3 home closing gross margin is above 17.6%.
Why it matters: Q2 closings grew, but gross margin fell and pretax income dropped. The Q3 report will show whether growth continues without more margin loss.
Watch forThe Q3 report shows closings above 839 and gross margin above 17.6%.
Also watch forThe Q3 report shows closings below 839 and gross margin below 17.6%.
Why it matters: Debt-to-book capitalization rose from 9.0% at year-end to 13.2% in June. A further rise would test management's focus on balance sheet strength.
Worry ifQ3 debt-to-book ratio is above 13.2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 debt-to-book ratio is 13.2% or less.
Why it matters: Orders rose 32% year over year in Q2. Continued growth would support the sales trend as the company expands its communities.
Supportive ifQ3 net new home orders exceed 970, the Q2 2026 total.
Worry ifQ3 net new home orders are below 970.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $530 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,623 loss on $10,000 · 56.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The cancellation rate rose to 12.7% in Q2 from 10.0% a year earlier. Another increase could weaken order growth.
Worry ifThe Q3 cancellation rate is above 12.7%.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 cancellation rate is at or below 12.7%.