Select Medical Holdings, Corp. (SEM)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.510.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 SEM trades at 15× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $19 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $17.39 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $6.23 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $2.49 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $20.40 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $26.96 |
| 21.2 |
| 1.27 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $7.78 | 5.8 | 4.25 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $16.49 | 17.0 | 0.97 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $22.71 | 21.2 | 1.07 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $41.95 | 0.9 | 45.76 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $35.53 | 33.2 | 1.07 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $16.71 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $16.51 | 15.4 | 1.07 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $23.57 | 21.2 | 1.11 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $45.40 | 21.2 | 2.14 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $15.16 | 17.0 | 0.89 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $39.66 | 21.2 | 1.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $49.33 | 0.9 | 53.81 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $62.05 | 33.2 | 1.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $28.83 | 15.4 | 1.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $64.26 | 21.2 | 3.03 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $14.34 | 17.0 | 0.84 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $44.08 | 21.2 | 2.08 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $54.83 | 0.9 | 59.81 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $68.97 | 33.2 | 2.08 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $32.04 | 15.4 | 2.08 | Analyst | high |