Select Medical Holdings, Corp. (SEM)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.510.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SEM — officer change
Dated 2026-07-01
Director — William H. Frist, Daniel J. Thomas, Katherine R. Davisson, Parvinderjit S. Khanuja, James S. Ely III, Thomas A. Scully and Marilyn B. Tavenner: Departures were in connection with the closing of the Merger and not due to any disagreement.
Why it matters: Changes in sector growth can affect Select Medical's performance. This can change their outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: EPS guidance of $1.22 to $1.32 is important. It helps assess profitability.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS is reported at or above $0.35, consistent with annual guidance.
Worry ifQ2 EPS is below $0.30. This shows possible problems with profitability.
Why it matters: Confirming EPS guidance shows strong earnings. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS reported between $1.22 and $1.32.
Worry ifQ2 EPS falls below $1.22.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Worry ifEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$12 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,042 loss on $10,000 · 20.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company operates and makes money. These are key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 remains within the range of $520 million to $540 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $520 million for 2026.
Why it matters: The merger will change Select Medical's ownership. It will also affect its stock listing.
Supportive ifThe merger is done. Select Medical is off the NYSE as of July 1, 2026.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Regulatory problems could slow down the merger. They may also impact future operations.
Worry ifNo regulatory problems come up that delay the merger or need more approvals.
Less concerning ifRegulatory groups raise issues or need more approvals, which delays the merger.
Why it matters: Changes in operating income can show shifts in costs and profits.
Worry ifOperating income drops further from $98.4 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income goes up or stays the same from the current level.
Why it matters: The merger will take Select Medical private and affect stockholder value. It is crucial for future operations.
Watch forThe merger gets all needed approvals from regulators and stockholders by mid-2026.
Also watch forThe merger fails to secure necessary approvals or is delayed beyond mid-2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue guidance of $5.6B to $5.8B is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is reported at or above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments can show how healthy a company is. They also show management's confidence in future earnings.
Watch forThe board declares a dividend increase or maintains the current dividend of $0.0625 per share.
Also watch forThe board cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance is key. It helps keep investor trust after the merger.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q2 revenue guidance of $5.6B to $5.8B during the earnings call on July 30, 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance. This may mean there are problems in operations.
Why it matters: The merger will change Select Medical's ownership structure and affect its stock listing.
Supportive ifThe merger is complete. Select Medical is now a part of the consortium.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. This is due to regulatory or shareholder problems.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA results will show if the company is on track to meet its financial goals.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is within the range of $520 million to $540 million.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA falls below $520 million for Q2.