Select Medical Holdings, Corp. (SEM)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.510.00%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SEM — officer change
Dated 2026-07-01
Director — William H. Frist, Daniel J. Thomas, Katherine R. Davisson, Parvinderjit S. Khanuja, James S. Ely III, Thomas A. Scully and Marilyn B. Tavenner: Departures were in connection with the closing of the Merger and not due to any disagreement.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue guidance of $5.6B to $5.8B shows the company's growth trajectory is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, consistent with annual guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $1.4 billion. This shows possible growth issues.
Why it matters: Changes in sector growth can affect Select Medical's performance. This can change their outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows how much money the company expects to make. A stable outlook is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement maintains EPS guidance of $1.22 to $1.32 for 2026.
Worry ifEPS guidance is cut below $1.22 for 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings per share (EPS) in the guidance range shows financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS reported between $0.30 and $0.35, consistent with the annual target of $1.22 to $1.32.
Worry ifQ2 EPS is below $0.30. This shows possible money-making problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$12 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $158 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,043 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows confidence in growth. It shows the company can manage its operations well.
Supportive ifSelect Medical maintains its revenue guidance of $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion for 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to under $5.6 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA is in the guidance range. This means operations are going well.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is between $130 million and $140 million. This matches annual guidance.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is below $130 million. This shows problems with operations.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Worry ifEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company operates and makes money. These are key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 remains within the range of $520 million to $540 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $520 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Regulatory problems could slow down the merger. They may also impact future operations.
Worry ifNo regulatory problems come up that delay the merger or need more approvals.
Less concerning ifRegulatory groups raise issues or need more approvals, which delays the merger.
Why it matters: Changes in operating income can show shifts in costs and profits.
Worry ifOperating income drops further from $98.4 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income goes up or stays the same from the current level.
Why it matters: The cash deal closed, and SEM shares stopped trading on July 1, 2026. This is the key event for the former public stock.
Watch forThe merger is effective July 1, 2026, and the company confirms its shares are no longer listed on the NYSE.
Also watch forA company filing reports that the merger did not close or that SEM shares remain listed after July 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments can show how healthy a company is. They also show management's confidence in future earnings.
Watch forThe board declares a dividend increase or maintains the current dividend of $0.0625 per share.
Also watch forThe board cuts or suspends the dividend payment.