Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sezzle (SEZL)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$155.00+13.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.68 → 6.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SEZL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $5.10 in 2026 | A primary condition in Sezzle's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $5.10. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.50 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.38 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $5.10. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20261.38 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth financial business with strong recent results, not a low-risk or low-valuation case. The long-term thesis is intact, and the latest signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable.
SEZL is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence points to expectations already being stretched. The valuation picture is based on a possible re-rating, but confidence in that estimate is low; fragility is also rated low because expensive valuation is not paired with weak results and turbulent conditions.
Near-term results show strong execution: revenue and operating income each grew by more than 50% year over year in 2026-Q2, while operating margin stayed at 36.7%. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 35%, but risk remains high, and a recent history of a deep miss plus declining earnings surprises warrants attention.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining growth and margins without a guidance cut, which would be a meaningful negative. Rate conditions and sector momentum are additional swing factors: the evidence flags rate cuts as a risk and continued strong results from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express as supportive for the sector.
For the next 1 to 3 years, strong growth and execution support an intact thesis, but the premium valuation and high risk leave little room for a setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rose sharply, with operating income doubling to $69 million in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $50 million next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $64.251M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $69 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 202664,251,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sezzle's revenue grows at least 20% annually | Sezzle grows revenue fast, with 29% yearly growth and guidance above $180 million for 2026. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26 | Revenue: $166.503M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026166,503,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Valuation premium remains justified by growth | A supporting condition in Sezzle's published investment case. The stated target is Price to fair value premium <= 30%. | Intact | Valuation premium exceeds 50% without growth acceleration | P/E (TTM): 30.16x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202630.1556 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.54 → $6.68 · observed estimates
$0.75B → $0.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.54 | $747,995,290 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.60 | $752,827,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.60 | $752,827,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.65 | $757,157,140 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.55 | $747,995,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.68 | $757,163,214 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.68 | $757,163,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.68 | $757,161,671 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.