Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (SFBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.77+1.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
SFBC — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-27
Other Events. On October 27, 2026, the Company announced its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend on Company common stock of $0.21 per share, payable on November 20, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 06, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The board declared the same $0.21 dividend in Q2 and Q3. Payment would confirm the latest declaration; a missed payment would break that pattern.
Watch forSFBC pays $0.21 per share on November 20, 2026, as announced.
Also watch forSFBC does not pay the declared $0.21 per share on November 20, 2026, or announces a lower amount before payment.
Why it matters: Loans fell for the second quarter in a row. A rise would show lending has turned up; another drop would extend the decline.
Watch forQ4 loans held for portfolio exceed $878 million, the Q3 balance.
Also watch forQ4 loans held for portfolio fall below $878 million, extending the decline from Q2 and Q3.
Why it matters: Nonperforming loans rose to $8.5 million in Q3 from $2.7 million a year earlier. A further rise would add to credit concerns.
Worry ifQ4 nonperforming loans top $8.5 million, or rise above 0.97% of total loans.
Less concerning ifQ4 nonperforming loans fall below $8.5 million and their share of loans falls below 0.97%.
Why it matters: A higher margin would show that lower funding costs still help earnings after debt repayment. A lower margin would weaken that sign.
Watch forQ4 net interest margin is above 3.74%, the Q3 level, and the average cost of deposits is at or below 2.11%.
Also watch forQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.74%, or the average cost to get deposits rises above 2.11%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $260 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,317 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Deposits fell by $24.2 million in Q3, while the loans-to-deposits ratio rose to 97.1%. Further deposit loss could tighten funding room.
Worry ifQ4 deposits drop below $906.7 million, or loans as a share of deposits rise above 97.1%.
Less concerning ifQ4 deposits rise above $906.7 million, and loans as a share of deposits stay at or below 97.1%.