Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (SFBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.75+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
SFBC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-28
Other Events. On July 28, 2026, the Company announced its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend on Company common stock of $0.21 per share, payable on August 21, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 07, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin can hurt profits and raise funding costs.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 3.49%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 3.49%.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans could mean higher credit risk. This may hurt making money.
Worry ifNonperforming loans rise above $8.1 million. This shows credit quality is getting worse.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans drop or stay below $8.1 million. This shows credit quality is improving.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. This affects the company's outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Operating income fell in Q1 2026. A rise is needed to show effective management.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, operating income is over $1.96 million. This shows growth.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, operating income is below $1.96 million. This shows continued decline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,322 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a promise to give value to shareholders. This can help stock price.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend declared at $0.21 per share, consistent with prior quarters.
Worry ifIf the Q3 dividend is cut or not declared, it may show cash flow worries.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends is important for investor trust. Changes may affect stock interest.
Watch forThe company will keep paying dividends after the May 2026 payment.
Also watch forThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payout after May 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or growing deposits show strong customer ties. They help with cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal deposits remain stable or increase from $930.9 million in Q2.
Worry ifTotal deposits drop from $930.9 million. This raises worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: Steady operating income means better control of costs and income. This can help future growth.
Supportive ifOperating income was above $1.96 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income was below $1.96 million. This shows an ongoing decline.
Why it matters: A steady dividend payout shows the company is doing well. It shows management wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a cash dividend of $0.21 per share as planned.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payout. This raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows the company can make more money. This helps investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 net income is over $2.5 million. This shows strong financial performance.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $2.5 million. This suggests possible problems with making money.
Why it matters: A big drop in deposits may show customers are losing trust. This can hurt cash flow.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease more than 3.9% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits change by less than 3.9% in Q3. This shows stability.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean credit problems. This can hurt the company's finances.
Worry ifNonperforming loans increase over 9.2% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans stay stable or drop in Q3. This shows better credit management.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin means better profits from loans.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is over 3.73% in Q3. This shows improved lending efficiency.
Worry ifNet interest margin is below 3.73% in Q3. This shows possible profit challenges.