Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. (SFBS)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.88+2.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.57 → 3.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SFBS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share stays at or above $0.38 quarterly | Profit per share is guided to $5.25 for 2026. | Under Pressure | dividend per share falls below $0.34 quarterly | Dividend per share: $0.19 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.38 dividend per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a multi-year thesis built on loan growth, wider net interest margins, and cost efficiency. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium: recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management are rated neutral.
SFBS is cheap versus peers, and the evidence labels its current expectations as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is small, so the evidence does not point to a large mismatch between market assumptions and the thesis.
Near term, loan growth and improved margins and efficiency support operating performance, but total deposits were slightly lower year over year and the recent earnings miss adds caution. Management priorities on core-market growth and margin expansion are on track; Houston expansion is still at an early stage, with costs evident but no specific profitability milestone provided.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued loan and deposit growth, sustained margin expansion, and cost control as SFBS expands into new markets. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would be adverse; continued earnings strength at financial-sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SFBS has a credible operating-growth case and a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but repeated earnings misses and deposit trends warrant close attention. The thesis remains intact, with execution and interest-rate conditions as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$5.06 EPS for FY 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $5.00 for 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Loans and deposits grow at least 7% and 8% annualized respectively | ServisFirst grows loans by about 7% annualized and deposits by 8%. | Intact | loan or deposit growth falls below 5% annualized next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net interest margin stays near or above 3.53% | A primary condition in ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.53% net interest margin. | Intact | net interest margin falls below 3.3% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.27 → $3.50 · observed estimates
$0.76B → $0.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.27 | $763,726,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.27 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.63 | $763,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.61 | $757,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.57 | $751,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.57 | $751,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.57 | $751,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.57 | $751,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.57 | $751,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.52 | $744,114,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.50 | $733,556,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.