Saga Communications Inc (SGA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.68-2.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers
SGA — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-10
Other Events. On September 10, 2026, Saga Communications, Inc. ( the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share on its Class A Common Stock to be paid on October 16, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 23, 2026, as set forth in the press release included as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 6.5%, while station costs rose. A deeper drop could add pressure to already lower station income.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue is down more than 6.5% from the same quarter in 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net revenue is flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Saga has kept its quarterly dividend at $0.25. A repeat would support the stated plan to keep paying regular dividends.
Supportive ifThe board sets another quarterly dividend at $0.25 per share.
Worry ifThe board cuts, skips, or does not declare the next quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: Saga spent $2.0 million in the first half and gave a $3.0–$3.5 million full-year range. Spending above that range could use more cash.
Worry ifSaga reports more than $3.5 million in total capital spending for 2026.
Less concerning ifSaga reports 2026 capital spending within or below the $3.0–$3.5 million range.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $347 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,683 loss on $10,000 · 36.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.