Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sight Sciences, Inc. (SGHT)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.68+2.76%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SGHT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage patent litigation outcomes without major losses | A supporting condition in Sight Sciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No adverse ruling causing major financial harm. | Recovered | Unfavorable court ruling causing large damages or injunction | No adverse ruling; final judgment in SGHT's favor (Apr 2026) Final judgment entered in SGHT's favor in Alcon patent case; no new adverse litigation events reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SGHT is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. Its long-term thesis is on watch: revenue and market access are improving, while recent performance has lagged its industry group.
The valuation model describes a durable premium to peers, with no gap between its expectations measure and what is priced in; confidence in that model is low. The evidence does not point to a clear expectations cushion, so the premium depends on continued growth and better execution.
Near-term results show revenue up 20% year over year in 2026-Q2, lower adjusted operating expenses, and higher full-year revenue guidance. Dry-eye revenue also expanded sharply, but the company remains loss-making and expense progress is mixed; a recent earnings miss and weaker performance than its industry group add risk.
A favorable scenario depends on another guidance increase after the prior cut noted in the forward evidence, along with continued growth in dry-eye access and revenue. A weaker jobs trend could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names, while earnings and guidance from sector peers may shape the backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SGHT’s thesis depends on sustaining revenue growth and showing that cost discipline can support a path beyond losses. The sector backdrop has improved, but evidence remains mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating expenses stay below $96 million in 2026 |
| The company focuses on managing operating expenses near $93-$96 million. |
| Intact |
| Operating expenses exceed $96 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $83 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Sight Sciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=83 million USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below $83 million in FY26 | Revenue: $24.923M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=83 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202624,923,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Recent Financial and Business Highlights • Record revenue of $24.9 million in the third quarter of 2026, a 25% increase compared to $19.9 million in the third quarter of 2025.” “2026 Financial Guidance Sight Sciences raised its revenue guidance for full year 2026 to range from $92 million to $93 million, representing year-over-year growth of 19% to 20%, versus prior revenue guidance of $88 million to $92 million.” Revenue was $24.923 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.66 → $-0.47 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.66 | $95,658,300 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.66 | $95,658,300 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.66 | $95,658,300 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.66 | $95,658,300 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.66 | $95,658,300 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.45 | $95,755,680 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.50 | $95,658,303 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.45 | $95,755,682 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.45 | $95,755,682 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.45 | $95,755,680 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.67 | $95,755,682 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.45 | $95,755,680 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.67 | $95,755,682 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.45 | $95,755,680 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.43 | $101,066,120 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.43 | $101,066,120 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.43 | $101,066,120 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.55 | $99,837,553 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.53 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.60 | $101,066,124 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.30 | $100,957,859 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.30 | $100,957,859 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.52 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.47 | $100,957,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.47 | $100,907,859 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.47 | $100,907,859 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.