SPAR Group Inc (SGRP)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.670.00%
Close 2026-08-17 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGRP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -90.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SGRP — officer change
Dated 2026-08-12
Director — James R. Brown, Sr.: The directors were removed due to findings of actions adverse to the company's best interests and non-compliance with policies, indicating a contentious departure rather than a routine retirement.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit can affect the company's image and finances.
Worry ifA positive outcome or settlement of the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifA negative ruling or worsening of the lawsuit.
Why it matters: Fixing the delisting notice is key. It helps keep investor trust and market access.
Supportive ifThe company says it has met Nasdaq's equity rules again.
Worry ifCompany fails to regain compliance and faces delisting.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's recovery. It reflects the success of their strategic shift to merchandising.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $35.5M, supporting full-year guidance.
Worry ifIf Q2 2026 revenue is below $30M, it shows a continued decline.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows recovery and growth. It supports management's guidance for the year.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at $143M or higher for Q2 2026.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $143M for Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,786 loss on $10,000 · 77.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A larger decline would show ongoing weakness in the U.S. market, hurting growth plans.
Worry ifU.S. revenue declines more than 7.8% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifU.S. revenue stabilizes or grows year-over-year.
Why it matters: Growth in Canada may help offset revenue drops in the U.S. It can support overall profits.
Supportive ifCanada's revenue grew more than 20% compared to last year in Q3.
Worry ifCanada revenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins show a shift to better services. This helps profits.
Supportive ifGross margins exceed 23% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margins fall below 21.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A costs help profits. They show good cost management.
Supportive ifSG&A costs reported below $24 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifSG&A costs exceed $24 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would signal a recovery from the 10% revenue decline in Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was $35M or more. This shows growth momentum.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $30M. This suggests a continued decline.