Reading SHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SHC free→Reading SHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SHC free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether SHC cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 SHC trades at 18× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.24 (-0.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$287.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,214.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve after the recent miss. Investors want to see better performance.
Confirms:Q2 earnings show revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings show revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SHC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Credit Agreement On May 20, 2026, Sotera Health Company (the “Company”), Sotera Health Holdings, LLC (“SHH”), certain subsidiaries of the Company, each 2026 Refinancing Term Lender (the “Refinancing Lenders”) and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as first lien Administrative Agent (the “Administrative Agent”) entered into Amendment No. 7 (the “Amendment”) to the First Lien Credit Agreement dated as of December 13, 2019, by and among the Company, SHH, the A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SHC Sotera Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to refine and implement capital allocation strategies to optimize financial performance.
Ensure a smooth leadership transition with the appointment of a new CEO to drive strategic initiatives.
Focus on improving earnings performance to meet or exceed market expectations.
Why it matters: Sotera's performance is tied to the health care sector's growth phase; any slowdown could impact results.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median, indicating a slowdown.
Disproves:If sector revenue growth stays stable or gets better, it helps Sotera's performance.
CEO — Alton Shader: Alton Shader was appointed as CEO, and Michael B. Petras, Jr. transitioned to Executive Chairman.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Sotera Health Company (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company will hold its previously announced conference call on May 5, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss its financial results for the quarter. A copy of the Press Release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by refe…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth under
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On May 13, 2026, the stockholders’ agreement (the “Stockholders Agreement”) by and among Sotera Health Company (the “Company”) and the stockholders party thereto, dated as of November 19, 2020, terminated pursuant to its terms as described below under