Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.68+3.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHOO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 SHOO trades at 24× p/e — 1.6× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $40 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts target $45–$56. Note: our $40 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($45–$56). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $55 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $52.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $6.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $28.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $23.36 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$45.00 – $56.00 (median $52.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-08-05
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $23.24 |
| 10.5 |
| 2.32 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $47.90 | 15.8 | 3.02 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $38.08 | 14.7 | 2.59 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $31.18 | 0.8 | 37.98 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $46.88 | 26.0 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $15.64 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $29.50 | 15.1 | 1.95 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $35.90 | 15.8 | 2.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $48.00 | 14.7 | 3.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $41.45 | 0.8 | 50.49 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $84.99 | 26.0 | 3.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $29.63 | 15.8 | 1.87 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $57.79 | 14.7 | 3.93 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $49.91 | 0.8 | 60.79 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $102.33 | 26.0 | 3.93 | Analyst | medium |