Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.98+6.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.78 → 2.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SHOO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operating activities | A supporting condition in Steven Madden, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is Positive cash flow from operations by FY26. | Broken | Cash flow remains negative or worsens through FY26 | Cash from operations: $213.336M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 2026213,336,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SHOO is a growth-oriented consumer discretionary business, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, and its signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable. The evidence is medium confidence, while earnings quality remains fragile.
SHOO trades at a 1.6-times premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to an expensive setup. The expectations gap is 0.06, while the pricing assessment says the fragility is justified rather than reflecting a broader stack of weak execution and turbulence.
Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue grew 19.1% year over year, and management has maintained an 11% to 13% fiscal 2026 revenue growth priority. Operating cash flow improved sharply from the first to the second quarter, but its path remains uneven. Near-term miss risk is rated low, though the record includes a deep past miss and earnings surprises have been trending down.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining its revenue-growth trajectory and improving the consistency of operating cash flow. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility as well as lower expectations. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from NKE, DECK, and CROX would support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, but the premium valuation makes dependable execution important. The central tests are sustaining growth, making cash flow less uneven, and avoiding a reversal in guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities showed volatility, with a negative $55.3 million in 2026-Q1 improving sharply to $204.6 million in 2026-Q2. This indicates management is making progress on improving operating cash flow, though the trajectory is uneven.
Delivery assessment Oct 28, 2026EPS near $2.6 in FY26 | Profit beats show good execution with EPS guidance near $2.6. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.3 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.55 and <= $2.65. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 10% to 12% | A primary condition in Steven Madden, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 12% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 19.12% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 10% to 12% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 31, 202619.117174 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.534 billion in 2025 to an expected 11% to 13% increase in 2026. Quarterly revenue increased 19.1% year-over-year to $665.9 million in 2026-Q2 from $559.0 million in 2025-Q2. Management has consistently raised and reaffirmed this revenue growth target, delivering on the trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 28, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.70 → $2.74 · observed estimates
$3.05B → $3.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.70 | $3,050,154,670 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.71 | $3,050,726,100 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.71 | $3,050,726,100 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.70 | $3,050,726,100 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.70 | $3,050,726,100 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.70 | $3,051,286,100 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.70 | $3,051,286,100 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.70 | $3,051,286,100 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.74 | $3,047,614,671 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.77 | $3,093,179,320 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.77 | $3,097,179,320 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.77 | $3,097,179,320 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.77 | $3,097,179,320 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.77 | $3,097,179,320 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.77 | $3,097,179,320 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.76 | $3,057,905,027 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.77 | $3,070,569,472 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.78 | $3,087,612,525 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.78 | $3,068,557,175 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.78 | $3,087,632,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.78 | $3,087,632,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.78 | $3,087,632,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.78 | $3,087,632,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.78 | $3,087,632,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.76 | $3,091,193,525 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.73 | $3,082,218,447 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.73 | $3,082,218,447 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.73 | $3,082,218,447 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.73 | $3,082,218,447 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.73 | $3,082,218,447 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.73 | $3,082,218,447 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.73 | $3,082,218,447 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.74 | $3,082,540,669 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.74 | $3,082,540,669 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.74 | $3,082,540,669 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.74 | $3,082,540,669 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.74 | $3,082,540,669 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.74 | $3,082,540,669 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.74 | $3,084,518,128 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.74 | $3,083,962,573 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.