Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$38.99-17.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHOO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SHOO — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
Other Events. The Company’s press release on November 5, 2026 also announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share on the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock. The dividend is payable on December 24, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 11, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: SHOO raised its adjusted EPS range in Q2, but held its GAAP EPS range steady. The next report tests profit delivery.
Watch forSHOO keeps adjusted 2026 EPS guidance at $2.05–$2.15 or raises it, while keeping GAAP EPS at $2.55–$2.65 or above.
Also watch forSHOO cuts adjusted EPS guidance below $2.05 or GAAP EPS below $2.55.
Why it matters: Cash from operations swung from negative $55.3 million in Q1 to positive $204.6 million in Q2. Another positive quarter would show the rebound lasted.
Watch forSHOO reports cash from operations above zero in its next quarterly results.
Also watch forSHOO reports cash from operations below zero in its next quarterly results.
Why it matters: Q2 wholesale sales grew 11.5% excluding Kurt Geiger, after an 8.2% decline in Q1. Continued growth would show the change is holding.
Watch forThe next report shows wholesale revenue, not counting Kurt Geiger, above the same quarter last year.
Also watch forThe next report shows wholesale revenue, not counting Kurt Geiger, below the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: The sector read says consumer discretionary revenue is shrinking, with recent signs of a possible turn. Retail sales and sector revenue can test that shift.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows growth from a year ago. The later sector read shows revenue growth.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows a drop from a year ago. The sector read still shows falling revenue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,173 loss on $10,000 · 31.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 revenue growth range to 11%–13%. The next report tests whether sales stay on that path.
Watch forOn November 5, SHOO keeps revenue growth guidance at 11%–13% or raises it, and reports year-over-year revenue growth.
Also watch forOn November 5, SHOO cuts revenue growth guidance below 11% or reports lower revenue year over year.