Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.68+3.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHOO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SHOO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-30
Director — Mr. Kenneth Pilot: The Board expanded and appointed a new director to fill the newly-created position.
Why it matters: Earnings guidance can impact investor sentiment. A strong EPS forecast may boost confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS guidance is in the range of $2.55 to $2.65.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS guidance is below $2.55.
Why it matters: Management raised revenue growth guidance to 11%-13%. This shows the brand is strong.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 revenue increases 11% or more compared to fiscal 2025.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 11% compared to fiscal 2025.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for ongoing operations and growth investments.
Watch forCash from operations stays positive at over $200 million in Q3.
Also watch forCash from operating activities drops back below $100 million in Q3.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $387 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,173 loss on $10,000 · 31.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in wholesale revenue may mean problems in the business model.
Worry ifWholesale revenue declines more than 8% year over year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifWholesale revenue goes up or drops less than 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow helps a company grow. Better cash flow means more efficient operations.
Supportive ifCash from operations will be over $204.6 million next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations will fall below $204.6 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth in Q2 is key to meeting the 10% to 12% annual target. It shows demand strength.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue increases by at least 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is on track to reach its annual growth goal.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 10% or more compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 10%. This shows slower performance.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a change in the sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the sector median.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the sector median.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance above 11% shows strong demand. It also shows good management and confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 revenue guidance remains at 11% to 13% growth compared to 2025.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered below 11% for fiscal 2026 revenue growth.
Why it matters: Changes in tariffs can affect costs and pricing. This impacts margins and competitiveness.
Worry ifNew tariffs are announced that increase costs for imported goods.
Less concerning ifTariff policies stay stable or drop, lowering costs.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows they care about shareholders. It also shows they are financially healthy.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled on September 24, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on revenue and profit trends, crucial for assessing growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 11%, it may show weak demand or problems.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is reported at 11% or higher compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth is reported below 11% compared to Q3 2025.