SIFCO Industries Inc (SIF)
AMEXIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.35+0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SIF — CFO transition
Dated 2026-02-03
Chief Financial Officer — Jennifer Wilson: Ms. Jennifer Wilson resigned from her position as Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Eric Shultz was appointed to succeed her.
Why it matters: Revenue growth above 30% signals strong demand and operational success. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is above 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit margins mean better cost control. This can lead to more earnings.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases beyond 21.4% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 21.4% in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping employees longer can boost productivity. This helps SIFCO's growth plans.
Supportive ifEmployee retention rates rise a lot in Q3.
Worry ifEmployee retention rates worsen in Q3.
Why it matters: Going back to losses could raise concerns about profits and operations.
Worry ifQ3 net income from continuing operations reported as a loss.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income from continuing operations reported as a gain.
Why it matters: A drop in EBITDA may show worse efficiency and lower profits.
Worry ifQ3 EBITDA was below $1 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 EBITDA reported at or above $1 million.
Why it matters: Backlog growth above this level indicates strong future demand for products. It supports management's view on market strength.
Supportive ifBacklog reported to grow more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifBacklog reported to grow less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: High Adjusted EBITDA means strong performance and good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is over $4 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is below $3 million.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may mean less demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth less than 15% compared to Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth of 15% or more compared to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Net income keeps growing. This shows the company is making more money. It helps investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income in Q2 is higher than $2.65 million.
Worry ifNet income in Q2 is lower than $2.65 million.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margin may mean rising costs or pricing pressure. This affects profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 10% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin remains at or above 10% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better net income shows the company can control costs and make profits.
Supportive ifNet income from ongoing operations goes up compared to last quarter.
Worry ifNet income from ongoing operations goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Growth in backlog indicates strong future demand. This can lead to sustained revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog is up from last quarter.
Worry ifBacklog is down from last quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$243 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $687 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,146 loss on $10,000 · 31.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.