Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Skillsoft Corp. (SKIL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.62-22.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.64 → 4.64 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SKIL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $108M-$116M in FY 2027 | A supporting condition in Skillsoft Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $108M-$116M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $108M in FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Full-Year Fiscal 2027 Financial Outlook The following table reflects Skillsoft’s reiterated financial outlook for fiscal 2027, based on current market conditions, expectations, and assumptions: Revenue $388 million – $406 million Adjusted EBITDA (1) $108 million – $116 million TDS Free Cash Flow (1) $14 million – $22 million (1) Denotes a non-GAAP financial measure.” “We remain focused on disciplined execution and actively managing our cost structure, which allows us to maintain our Adjusted EBITDA (1) and Free Cash Flow (1) guidance.”” Operating income was $3.374 million in 2027-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with volatile management and weak recent financial performance, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is still in watch status, though its signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable after an earnings beat and a completed acquisition.
The valuation evidence describes SKIL as cheap versus peers, while the model’s expectations gap is negative, suggesting limited expectations relative to its valuation inputs. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility and medium confidence, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
For fiscal 2027, management has kept adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance steady, but revenue guidance was revised modestly lower in the latest quarter. Near-term execution remains uncertain: the latest event was an earnings beat, yet performance remains well below the industry cohort, and the risk snapshot flags the company’s small size and recent peer misses.
The multi-year thesis depends on management delivering its fiscal 2027 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow goals. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakening would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SKIL remains a high-risk, watch-status thesis with some recent positive signals but mixed execution evidence. The key test is whether management can meet its financial goals as sector and economic conditions evolve. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve FY 2027 free cash flow of $14M-$22M | Free cash flow is guided at $14M to $22M. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $14M in FY 2027 | Free cash flow: $-17.363M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $14M-$22M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 2026-17,363,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Full-Year Fiscal 2027 Financial Outlook The following table reflects Skillsoft’s reiterated financial outlook for fiscal 2027, based on current market conditions, expectations, and assumptions: Revenue $388 million – $406 million Adjusted EBITDA (1) $108 million – $116 million TDS Free Cash Flow (1) $14 million – $22 million (1) Denotes a non-GAAP financial measure.” “We remain focused on disciplined execution and actively managing our cost structure, which allows us to maintain our Adjusted EBITDA (1) and Free Cash Flow (1) guidance.”” Operating cash flow was $28.940 million in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Improve financial strategy under new CFO leadership | New leadership may improve financial strategy. | Under Pressure | Management confidence declines or new issues arise | Qualitative: Revenue miss vs $388M-$406M target; S&P downgrade on leverage Q2 revenue miss, S&P downgrade, and Global Knowledge divestiture completion. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve FY 2027 revenue of $388M-$406M | A primary condition in Skillsoft Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $388M-$406M. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $388M in FY 2027 | Revenue: $98.248M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $388M-$406M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 202698,248,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Full-Year Fiscal 2027 Financial Outlook The following table reflects Skillsoft’s reiterated financial outlook for fiscal 2027, based on current market conditions, expectations, and assumptions: Revenue $388 million – $406 million Adjusted EBITDA (1) $108 million – $116 million TDS Free Cash Flow (1) $14 million – $22 million (1) Denotes a non-GAAP financial measure.” “We remain focused on disciplined execution and actively managing our cost structure, which allows us to maintain our Adjusted EBITDA (1) and Free Cash Flow (1) guidance.”” Revenue was $98.248 million in 2027-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.64 → $4.64 · observed estimates
$0.38B → $0.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.64 | $381,721,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.