SkyWater Technology, Inc. (SKYT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.460.00%
Close 2026-08-07 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SKYT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 616.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 603.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SKYT — officer departure
Dated 2026-07-31
Director — Timothy E. Baxter, Edward M. Daly, Nancy Fares, Dennis J. Goetz, Joseph J. Humke, Andrew D. C. LaFrence, Tammy J. Miller and Loren A. Unterseher: All listed directors resigned as part of a merger agreement.
Why it matters: Achieving record revenue signals strong demand and growth. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal 2025 revenue exceeds $442.1 million.
Worry ifFiscal 2025 revenue falls short of $442.1 million.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean lower costs and better efficiency. This matters after the buyout.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves from the current range of 16.5%-19.5%.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls or stays below 16.5%. This shows ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: The merger could reshape SkyWater's strategic direction and financial outlook. It is a key event to monitor.
Watch forThe official announcement says the merger is done.
Also watch forThere is news about delays or issues with the merger.
Why it matters: New government funding may help SkyWater grow. It could also improve operations.
Supportive ifNew government funding over $10 million was announced for R&D or expansion.
Worry ifNo new government funding announcements in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $688 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,264 loss on $10,000 · 42.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs. This is key after the acquisition.
Supportive ifManagement raises gross margin guidance above 19.5%. This shows effective cost control.
Worry ifGuidance stays below 16.5%. This suggests ongoing cost management challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown for SkyWater and its peers. This could affect market sentiment.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below the median of 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median of 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is important. It helps fund operations and growth after the acquisition.
Watch forCash from operations is growing steadily. This shows the company is stable.
Also watch forCash from operations is negative again. This shows the company is not stable.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition will secure SkyWater's future as a U.S. foundry under IonQ. This may change its operations and how it connects with customers.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will finish on July 31, 2026. All regulatory approvals are in place.
Worry ifDelays or problems may push the acquisition completion past the expected date.
Why it matters: Revenue trends after the acquisition will show how well SkyWater joins IonQ and helps customers.
Watch forQuarterly revenue remains stable or increases from the $156.4M reported in 2026-Q2.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue falls below $150M. This shows there may be integration challenges.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for smooth operations. Changes may show problems with integration.
Watch forCash from operations shows steady growth after the buyout.
Also watch forCash flow stays negative or changes a lot. This shows financial instability.