Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Smartstop Self Storage REIT, Inc. (SMA)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.14+4.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.62 → 0.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
free cash flow per share near $2.00 | The company guides 2026 revenue near $222B and free cash flow about $2.00 per share. | Intact | free cash flow per share falls below $1.80 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SMA is a growth-oriented real estate investment trust, with growth tied to acquisitions, third-party management, and operating improvements. Its long-term thesis is intact, though execution is mixed and company quality has recently weakened.
SMA trades at a premium to peers, and the evidence points to a meaningful expectations gap, with some scope for valuation to depend on a re-rating. The priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified, while fragility is low, so the snapshot does not show concentrated signs of fragility.
Near-term results have been strong: adjusted funds from operations per share grew 17.6% year over year in 2026-Q2, and same-store net operating income grew 3.7%. Management is delivering on same-store growth, but its record is described as volatile, the quality score fell, and recent quarter misses remain a watch point.
Over the next few quarters, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage management credibility, while continued execution on the Deca Initiative could support growth. The multi-year view also depends on interest rates and the real estate sector backdrop, including whether sector leaders maintain their operating strength.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SMA’s thesis rests on sustaining operating growth and delivering management’s expansion plans, with guidance credibility and sector conditions as key risks. Evidence is mixed, so the multi-year view remains intact but warrants attention to execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose from $3.29M to $9.58M, showing better profit. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $7M next year |
Net income: $11.246M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.5 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202611,246,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
cash from operating activities improves to at least $24M | SmartStop is improving cash flow, with operating cash up from $14.36M to $24.24M. | Improving | cash from operating activities falls below $20M next year | Cash from operations: $19.674M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=24.0 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202619,674,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
operating margin at least 2% | A supporting condition in Smartstop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.0 PERCENT. | Intact | operating margin falls below 1.5% in FY26 | Operating margin: 22.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.0 PERCENT. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202622.547808 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue near $222B | A primary condition in Smartstop Self Storage REIT, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~221800 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $210B in FY26 | Revenue: $79.276M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~221800 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202679,276,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.54 → $0.66 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.54 | $331,176,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.54 | $331,176,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.54 | $331,176,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.49 | $262,970,874 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.49 | $262,970,874 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.49 | $262,970,874 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.49 | $262,970,874 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.49 | $262,970,874 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.49 | $262,970,874 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.54 | $331,351,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.54 | $319,998,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.54 | $319,998,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.49 | $261,868,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.49 | $261,868,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.49 | $261,868,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.49 | $261,868,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.49 | $261,868,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.49 | $261,868,714 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.52 | $261,721,429 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.52 | $262,043,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.52 | $262,043,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.52 | $262,043,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.52 | $262,043,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.57 | $261,643,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.57 | $261,643,286 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.57 | $261,660,843 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.58 | $261,786,142 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.58 | $261,786,142 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.57 | $261,782,428 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.57 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.57 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.57 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.58 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.58 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.58 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.58 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.58 | $261,782,428 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.58 | $262,011,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.58 | $261,868,142 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.60 | $263,784,625 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.60 | $263,784,625 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.62 | $263,730,521 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.62 | $263,743,021 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.62 | $263,743,021 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.62 | $263,549,352 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.62 | $263,549,352 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.62 | $263,549,352 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.66 | $263,552,574 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.66 | $263,552,574 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.66 | $263,552,574 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.66 | $263,552,574 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.66 | $263,552,574 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.66 | $263,552,574 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.66 | $263,552,574 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.66 | $262,439,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.66 | $262,439,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.66 | $262,264,771 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.66 | $262,280,983 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.66 | $262,280,983 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.66 | $262,280,983 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.66 | $262,280,983 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.66 | $262,280,983 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.66 | $262,280,983 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.