Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SmartFinancial, Inc. (SMBK)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.53+1.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.19 → 4.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.09 per share | It pays a steady dividend of $0.09 per share quarterly. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.09 per share quarterly | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SMBK is a smaller-cap financial company with a growth-led, moderately risky profile, rather than a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance, though management execution is mixed and confidence in the overall evidence is medium.
Valuation is stretched, and SMBK carries an 18% premium versus peers. The expectations gap is modestly positive, while the valuation measure rose from 38.2 to 48.8; this suggests recent strength has raised expectations, without evidence of unusually fragile pricing.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue increased from $75.6 million in 2025-Q4 to $78.0 million in 2026-Q2, and the 2026-Q3 release reported $174 million in net organic loan and lease growth. Net income and tangible book value per share also increased, but Q3 expenses rose, leaving expense discipline mixed; the snapshot describes near-term miss risk as low but notes SMBK’s smaller size and a deep miss in its recent history.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued organic loan and deposit growth, while management maintains credit quality and controls expenses. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would be unfavorable factors in the snapshot, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SMBK’s operating thesis is intact, but the stretched valuation leaves less room for execution to disappoint. The main test is whether organic growth and earnings progress continue alongside better expense discipline. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank has beaten earnings estimates several times recently. |
| Intact |
| No earnings beats in next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful transition and performance of new COO | The company is improving management with a new COO. | Intact | COO transition causes disruption or poor results | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain EPS guidance at $0.81 for fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in SmartFinancial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS = $0.81 for FY 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.81 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.96 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS = $0.81 for FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.96 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.16 → $4.14 · observed estimates
$0.25B → $0.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.16 | $248,185,250 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.18 | $248,319,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.19 | $247,862,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.19 | $247,809,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.19 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.18 | $247,708,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.18 | $247,647,180 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.16 | $246,624,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.16 | $246,624,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.16 | $246,624,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.16 | $246,624,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.16 | $246,624,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.16 | $246,624,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.15 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.15 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.14 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.14 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.14 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.14 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.14 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.14 | $246,364,600 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.