Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.47+0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $59 SMG trades at 13× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median, but our blended $58 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $63–$78. Note: our $58 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($63–$78). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $75.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $17.87 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $10.04 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $7.90 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$63.00 – $78.00 (median $75.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-07-30
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $109.25 |
| 26.0 |
| 4.21 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $71.95 | 15.0 | 4.79 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $87.77 | 1.5 | 58.84 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $32.51 | 7.0 | 4.62 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $87.53 | 17.9 | 4.89 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $59.44 | 26.0 | 2.29 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $70.12 | 15.0 | 4.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $79.81 | 1.5 | 53.50 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $32.87 | 7.0 | 4.67 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $39.62 | 26.0 | 1.53 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $65.81 | 15.0 | 4.38 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $74.90 | 1.5 | 50.21 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $30.85 | 7.0 | 4.38 | Analyst | medium |