Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$5.17 → $5.17 · observed estimates
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.19+8.72%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.17 → 5.17 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend per share | A supporting condition in Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain $0.66 per share quarterly dividend. | Intact | dividend cut or suspension in FY26 | Dividend per share: $0.66 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain $0.66 per share quarterly dividend. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20260.66 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$5.17 → $5.17 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a challenged, cyclical business with a recovery-dependent long-term thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is currently intact, though recent quality and momentum declines make progress on earnings and cash flow important to confirm.
The evidence describes SMG as cheap versus peers, while its expectations gap is positive, meaning expectations appear relatively modest. The valuation model has low confidence, and the priced-in tag is stretched, so the signals are mixed rather than a clear case that the market is overlooking the risks.
Near term, management has raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance and reaffirmed its free cash flow goal, while leverage has improved; these are signs of progress, but earnings quality remains loss-making in the snapshot. A recent debt issuance, a terminated agreement, and weaker quality and momentum measures add uncertainty, despite a moderate risk rating and a quiet near-term miss watch.
The key test is whether SMG delivers its raised fiscal 2026 guidance without a reversal, which would risk damaging management credibility. The multi-year view also depends on delivering cash flow and further reducing leverage, while sector bellwethers either sustain or lose their earnings momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is intact but execution-sensitive: peer-relative cheapness and sector support sit alongside loss-making earnings quality and weakening recent measures. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Non-GAAP adjusted EPS |
| A primary condition in Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $4.15 and $4.35. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $4.15 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Mark Scheiwer, chief financial officer and chief accounting officer, added, “We met or exceeded our fiscal 2026 commitments for net sales, gross margin, EPS, free cash flow and leverage ratio.” “1 Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Outlook The Company now expects non-GAAP adjusted diluted net income per share from continuing operations of $4.30 to $4.45.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Free cash flow | Free cash flow target is $275 million, supporting stable dividends. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $307M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$275 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026307,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Free cash flow of approximately $275 million.” “Document Exhibit 99.1 ScottsMiracle-Gro Announces Execution of Key Capital Allocation Initiatives Achieves free cash flow target of $275 million and reaffirms full Fiscal 2026 guidance MARYSVILLE, Ohio, September 15, 2026, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE: SMG), the leading marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products in North America, today announced the successful execution of key elements of its capital allocation strategy and reaffirmed confidence in achieving its Fiscal 2026 guidance.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Gross margin rate | A primary condition in Scotts Miracle-Gro Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=32% gross margin. | Under Pressure | gross margin falls below 30% in Q3 FY26 | Gross margin: 31.22% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=32% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202631.217473 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
U.S. Consumer segment net sales growth | Consumer segment. | Broken | YoY net sales growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.45B → $3.45B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $5.17 | $3,450,504,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.17 | $3,450,504,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.17 | $3,450,504,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.17 | $3,450,504,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.17 | $3,450,504,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.14 | $3,453,844,370 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.17 | $3,452,278,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.20 | $3,447,398,738 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.17 | $3,447,398,738 | 2 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.