Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.47+0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMG — officer change
Dated 2026-09-03
Chief Strategy Officer — Christopher J. Hagedorn: The filing discloses the agreed-upon departure of the Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy Officer, representing a loss of a senior executive but with a planned effective date.
Why it matters: This range is important for making money. It also helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported within the range of $4.15 to $4.35.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported below $4.00.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control. This helps the company's financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $450M in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $400M in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend helps build trust with investors and manage funds.
Watch forManagement says the dividend will stay the same for Q2.
Also watch forManagement says there will be a dividend cut or pause for Q2.
Why it matters: Information about long-term plans and money goals can change how investors feel.
Watch forGood news on growth strategy and financial goals was shared on Investor Day.
Also watch forBad news or unclear growth strategy was shared on Investor Day.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $365 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,100 loss on $10,000 · 21.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show rising costs and hurt profits.
Worry ifNon-GAAP adjusted gross margin rate is below 32%.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP adjusted gross margin rate reported at or above 32%.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal challenges in meeting the full-year EPS guidance.
Worry ifQ3 EPS from continuing operations was below $1.75 per share.
Less concerning ifQ3 EPS from continuing operations was above $1.75 per share.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows demand is rising and operations are working well. This is key for the company's future.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows the company is financially healthy. It shows management believes in future cash flows.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.66.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to meeting the company's fiscal 2026 targets. Weak growth could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth meets or exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance shows the company is on track for earnings growth. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company confirms Q4 EPS guidance stays within the range of $4.30 to $4.45.
Worry ifEPS guidance is now below $4.30. This shows possible problems with performance.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows strong cash generation and supports future investments. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifThe company reports free cash flow of at least $275 million for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $275 million, raising concerns about cash management.
Why it matters: Sales growth shows that people want the products. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifU.S. Consumer net sales report low single-digit growth year over year.
Worry ifU.S. Consumer net sales decline or show no growth, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: Updates on this strategy will show how well the company is adapting and growing. It is crucial for long-term success.
Watch forThe company shares big progress or new plans for the SMG 2.0 strategy.
Also watch forThere are no updates or problems with the SMG 2.0 strategy. This may mean no growth.