Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.19+8.72%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMG — Chief Strategy Officer transition
Dated 2026-10-16
Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy Officer — Christopher J. Hagedorn: The departure of a senior executive (EVP & CSO) via a negotiated separation agreement with standard severance terms represents a genuine loss of a senior officer, but the structured nature suggests an orderly exit rather than a sudden crisis.
Why it matters: Scotts tied this cash goal to lowering debt. Meeting it would support its plan to strengthen the balance sheet.
Supportive ifFull-year fiscal 2026 free cash flow is at least $275 million and net leverage is in the high 3s or lower.
Worry ifFull-year free cash flow is below $275 million, or net leverage remains above the high 3s.
Why it matters: Scotts is carrying out its SMG 2.0 plan while its chief strategy officer is leaving. A named successor would show the company has addressed this leadership gap.
Watch forScotts names a new chief strategy officer or gives a clear plan for covering the role.
Also watch forScotts reports no successor or coverage plan, or links the departure to delays in its SMG 2.0 plans.
Why it matters: This is Scotts' main growth focus. Continued growth would support its plan to build sales through new channels and products.
Supportive ifU.S. Consumer sales grow year over year and meet the low single-digit full-year growth goal.
Worry ifU.S. Consumer sales fall year over year, or the company lowers its low single-digit growth goal.
Why it matters: Third-quarter margin fell as freight and material costs rose. A 32% full-year result would show Scotts met its margin goal despite those costs.
Watch forFiscal 2026 adjusted gross margin is at least 32%.
Also watch forFiscal 2026 adjusted gross margin is below 32%, or freight or material costs put more pressure on margins.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $376 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,407 loss on $10,000 · 34.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The report will show whether Scotts met its raised fiscal 2026 profit goal. A miss could weaken confidence in its plan.
Watch forFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS from continuing operations is $4.30–$4.45, with free cash flow at or above $275 million.
Also watch forFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is below $4.30, or free cash flow is below $275 million.