Smith-Midland Corp. (SMID)
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.68+3.72%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMID
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
SMID — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-06-04
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On May 29, 2026, Smith-Midland Corporation (the “Company”) received a notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) stating that because the Company had not yet filed its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026 (the “Form 10-Q”), the Company is not in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1). Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) requires…
Why it matters: Nasdaq cited a late Q1 report. A timely next filing would show the reporting process is back on track.
Worry ifThe company misses an SEC filing deadline or gets another Nasdaq notice for late filings.
Less concerning ifThe company files its next required report on time and reports no new Nasdaq filing notice.
Why it matters: Management expects full-year product sales to rise. Growth would support its core business plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 product sales exceed the 2025 total.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 product sales are flat or lower than 2025.
Why it matters: Backlog rose 6% year over year, and most is due within 12 months. Sales growth depends on completing these projects.
Supportive ifThe next report shows backlog projects completed on time and revenue from those projects rising year over year.
Worry ifThe next report shows backlog falling below $54 million or project delays cutting revenue.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell from 29.7% to 23.2%. A further drop could show cost or project mix pressure remains.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 23.2%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin rises above 23.2%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $490 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,676 loss on $10,000 · 46.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management plans to add rental barriers and expand two plants. Spending and added capacity can support future sales, but may raise costs first.
Watch forThe company adds rental barriers or plant capacity. Product sales rise, and gross margin does not fall further.
Also watch forThe company adds no clear barriers or plant capacity. Costs rise, or gross margin falls below 23.2%.