Smith-Midland Corp. (SMID)
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.03-0.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMID
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
SMID — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-06-04
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On May 29, 2026, Smith-Midland Corporation (the “Company”) received a notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) stating that because the Company had not yet filed its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026 (the “Form 10-Q”), the Company is not in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1). Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) requires…
Why it matters: Filing the 10-Q is crucial for compliance with Nasdaq rules and maintaining listing status.
Worry ifThe company files the 10-Q by the next earnings date on August 13, 2026.
Less concerning ifThe company fails to file the 10-Q by August 13, risking delisting.
Why it matters: More product sales would help management's growth outlook for 2026.
Supportive ifProduct sales increase by at least 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifProduct sales decline or remain flat compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for the materials sector may mean a recovery. This could help Smith-Midland.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent.
Worry ifRevenue in the sector keeps going down. This shows the sector is shrinking.
Why it matters: An increase in backlog indicates strong future sales and demand for products.
Supportive ifBacklog reported above $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifBacklog reported below $48 million in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $541 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,244 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future demand. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog increases by more than 10% compared to the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or grows less than 5% compared to the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Filing the 10-Q on time is key for keeping Nasdaq listing.
Worry ifThe 10-Q is filed on time, confirming compliance with Nasdaq rules.
Less concerning ifFurther delays in filing the 10-Q lead to potential delisting.
Why it matters: More capital spending shows a commitment to growth and expansion.
Supportive ifCapital spending is over $2 million. This supports expansion plans.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $1.9 million. This shows less investment.
Why it matters: A growing backlog signals strong demand and potential revenue growth for Smith-Midland.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $60 million. This shows strong project wins.
Worry ifBacklog is under $57.4 million. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins show better cost control and stronger pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin improves to above 23.2% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 23.2%. This shows ongoing cost pressures.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue would show that growth is slowing, which could worry investors.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $21.6 million, which was the Q1 2026 revenue.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $22.7 million, which was the Q2 2025 revenue.
Why it matters: Resolving the compliance issue would help maintain the stock's listing and investor confidence.
Supportive ifSmith-Midland files its 10-Q by the end of August 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to file the 10-Q by the end of August 2026, risking delisting.
Why it matters: More product sales show demand for precast concrete. This backs up what management expects.
Supportive ifQ3 product sales increase year over year by at least 10% compared to Q2.
Worry ifQ3 product sales decline or stay flat compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Compliance with Nasdaq rules is crucial for maintaining the company's stock listing.
Worry ifThe company files its 10-Q for Q1 2026 by the end of September 2026.
Less concerning ifThe company fails to file its 10-Q by the end of September 2026.
Why it matters: Inflation raises costs. Lower margins show it is hard to manage expenses.
Worry ifGross margin improves to above 25% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifGross margin declines further below 23.2% in Q3 2026.