Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Summit Therapeutics Inc (SMMT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.19-12.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance ivonescimab FDA approval process | Summit Therapeutics aims to get FDA approval for ivonescimab, a key drug. | Improving | No FDA approval or major regulatory setback by end of 2026 | Qualitative: No FDA decision yet; $2B AZ partnership (Sep 2026) supports pipeline AstraZeneca invested $2B and partnered on ivonescimab trials in Sep 2026. No FDA approval or regulatory setback reported by Nov 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, clinical-development-led biotechnology story, not a proven earnings compounder: it is currently loss-making, and recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis remains in a watch state, with management showing steady progress on key priorities but mixed execution evidence overall.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation measure or specific market expectations, so valuation and the expectations gap cannot be assessed reliably. Fragility indicators are low, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around a loss-making business and its clinical and regulatory milestones.
Over the near term, consecutive earnings misses and a reported 51% miss probability make results a key risk. Over the multi-year view, fundamentals hinge on advancing ivonescimab trials, FDA review, and clinical collaborations; the FDA has accepted the application, with a decision date set for November 14, 2026.
The central swing factor is whether ongoing trials and updated survival evidence support ivonescimab’s development and FDA review. Near-term sector support could strengthen if healthcare bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, but weakening employment data or lower guidance from those companies could pressure the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year read is an uncertain, high-risk clinical development thesis with meaningful regulatory and trial milestones ahead, alongside weak recent performance. Its progress depends on evidence for ivonescimab and the next earnings results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Summit Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Reduce operating cash flow burn below $100 million per quarter by FY27. |
| Recovered |
| Operating cash flow burn exceeds $100 million per quarter beyond FY27 |
Cash from operations: $-167.779M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Reduce operating cash flow burn below $100 million per quarter by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 23, 2026-167,779,398 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Raise sufficient capital without dilutive setbacks | A supporting condition in Summit Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Complete capital raise exceeding $400 million by end 2026. | Intact | Failure to raise at least $400 million by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.88 → $-1.14 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.88 | $42,122,790 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.91 | $42,475,650 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.89 | $44,069,070 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.89 | $44,258,330 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.89 | $44,258,330 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.89 | $44,258,330 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.89 | $44,258,330 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.89 | $44,245,530 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.10 | $63,404,495 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.15 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.15 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.15 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.15 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.15 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.15 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.16 | $59,526,862 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.16 | $59,529,035 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.16 | $59,535,702 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.16 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.16 | $59,533,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.14 | $59,533,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.13 | $59,533,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.13 | $59,533,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.13 | $59,533,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.13 | $59,533,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.13 | $59,533,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.13 | $59,533,328 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.13 | $59,535,500 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.13 | $59,535,500 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.13 | $59,535,502 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.13 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.13 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.13 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.13 | $59,535,675 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.14 | $58,566,906 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.14 | $58,566,906 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.