Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SmartRent Inc (SMRT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.62+18.25%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2026 | SmartRent aims to reach adjusted EBITDA profitability and positive cash flow in 2026. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.1 million, a $4.0 million improvement from the prior year, the Company's fourth consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA.” “• Generated positive cash flow from operations of $2.9 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder: SMRT remains loss-making, with weak recent performance and high risk. The thesis is in watch status, and confidence has eased from high to medium.
SMRT is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The valuation signal is therefore uncertain; the evidence does not show a clear expectation cushion, and the low fragility rating means no specific fragility warning was triggered.
Near term, results could remain uneven: two recent earnings updates were in line, while the latest evidence still places financial performance well below the industry cohort. Over the multi-year view, EBITDA progress, expense reductions, and IoT unit growth support management’s goals, but positive cash flow and sustained profitability are not yet established.
The main test is whether SMRT delivers full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA profitability and positive cash flow while continuing to expand deployed units toward one million in the first half of 2027. A guidance cut would weaken the case; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology peers could help the sector backdrop, but neither would replace company-level execution.
Over the next one to three years, SMRT’s thesis depends on turning improving operating measures into durable profitability, while weak relative performance and high business risk remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Expand deployed base and enhance platform capabilities | The company plans to expand its deployed base and improve platform capabilities using AI. | Intact | No meaningful growth in deployed base or platform capabilities in 2026 | Q4 rev +15-20% vs target; 1M units by H1 2027 SmartRent anticipates 15-20% Q4 revenue growth and targets 1M installed IoT units by H1 2027. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue to about $161 million in 2026 | Revenue is expected to grow about 21.7% next year to around $161 million. | Improving | Revenue falls below $150 million in FY26 | Revenue: $41.566M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $161 million in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202641,566,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.1 million, a $4.0 million improvement from the prior year, the Company's fourth consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA.” “• Generated positive cash flow from operations of $2.9 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.01 → $-0.06 · observed estimates
$0.20B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.01 | $200,363,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.02 | $191,072,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.01 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.01 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.06 | $200,363,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.07 | $194,922,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.06 | $188,481,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.