Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$147.89+9.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMTC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $148 SMTC trades at 76× p/e — 1.5× the 49× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $85 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $150–$300. Note: our $85 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($150–$300). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $158 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $200.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $16.73 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $16.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $18.00 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$150.00 – $300.00 (median $200.00) · 23 analysts · as of 2026-08-27
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1, 2027-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $20.44 |
| 22.3 |
| 1.06 |
| TTM |
| medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $73.62 | 46.6 | 1.58 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $124.07 | 25.3 | 4.91 | ntm analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $96.32 | 8.3 | 11.64 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $100.88 | 49.4 | 2.04 | Triangulated | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $164.08 | 25.3 | 6.49 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $201.34 | 8.3 | 24.34 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $217.00 | 25.3 | 8.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $266.27 | 8.3 | 32.19 | Analyst | medium |