Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-25 · fmp
Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.54-17.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.86 → 6.67 EPS · FY ending Jan 25, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMTC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Data center segment revenue grows to at least $291M in Q1 2027 | Its data center segment revenue rose to $291 million in Q1 2027. | Intact | Data center revenue falls below $274 million in Q1 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"The Semtech team executed exceptionally well, delivering record revenue across our key focus areas, earnings leverage that continued to outpace revenue growth and significant progress on portfolio optimization," said Hong Hou, president and CEO.” “"As FiberEdge and CopperEdge 1.6T revenues layer onto our strong growth base, we expect data center growth to accelerate throughout the year.” Revenue was $341.871 million in 2027-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-25 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 23, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-led growth business, with data center expansion and improving margins supporting the long-term thesis. The thesis is currently intact, but earnings quality is still marked as loss-making and overall risk is high.
SMTC is valued at a 1.25 premium to peers, and the evidence rates it as expensive. Expectations are broadly aligned with the valuation, while the model has low confidence; the priced-in assessment calls the valuation premium justified and fragility low.
Over the near term, management’s stated priorities are showing progress: data center revenue grew 33% year over year, adjusted gross margin improved, and operating income moved from a loss to positive. Momentum has fallen, and the company’s recent history and peer misses remain risks, although the stated near-term miss risk is low.
The multi-year view hinges on continued data center growth and further margin and operating income improvement. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; easier interest rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology companies could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on management sustaining its execution while the business converts growth into stronger profitability. The expensive valuation and high risk make those results important to the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross margin improves to at least 52.0% in Q1 2027 | A primary condition in Semtech Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= 52.0%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 50.4% in Q1 2027 | Gross margin: 53.75% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 52.0%. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 26, 202653.752439 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"This was another quarter of disciplined execution, converting record revenue, margin expansion and diluted earnings per share growth into strong operating and free cash flow," said Mark Lin, executive vice president and chief financial officer.” “Growing our focus areas and expanding margins all serve the same goal: building a predictable, high-margin and high-return business."” Gross profit was $183.764 million in 2027-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income improves to at least $25.8M in Q1 2027 | Gross margins improved to 52% and operating income turned positive at $25.8 million. | Improving | Operating income falls below -$18.3 million in Q1 2027 | Operating income: $55.772M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.8 million. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 26, 202655,772,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.83 → $6.67 · observed estimates
$1.66B → $2.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.83 | $1,658,465,991 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.83 | $1,658,465,991 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.85 | $1,663,346,276 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.85 | $1,663,346,276 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.85 | $1,663,346,276 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.85 | $1,686,219,067 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.85 | $1,667,233,161 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.85 | $1,667,209,469 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.82 | $1,664,601,650 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.82 | $1,664,601,650 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.82 | $1,664,601,650 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.82 | $1,664,601,650 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.30 | $1,713,634,659 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.30 | $1,713,634,659 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.30 | $1,713,634,659 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,210 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.84 | $1,944,340,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.84 | $1,942,491,176 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.86 | $1,948,224,510 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.67 | $2,043,251,291 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.67 | $2,043,277,958 | 11 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.