Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$110.96-12.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
SMTC — divestiture
Dated 2026-10-15
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously announced, on October 15, 2026, Semtech Corporation (the "Company" or “Semtech”) held a Data Center Analyst Day and live webcast in which the Company discussed an updated outlook for Semtech’s third quarter of fiscal year 2027 and a financial framework for fiscal year 2030, as follows: Previous Q3'27 Outlook Updated Q3'27 Outlook (in millions, except per share data) Net sales $ 410.0 +/- $5.0 $ 417.5 +/- $2.5 Non-GAAP Financial Measures Adjusted gross m…
Why it matters: The $62M sale would end Semtech's cellular module business. A delay or failed close would leave the deal unresolved.
Watch forSemtech confirms the Compal sale closed in fiscal Q4. Cash proceeds were near $62M before customary adjustments.
Also watch forThe sale does not close in fiscal Q4, or Semtech reports that the agreement ended or key approvals failed.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.71. Q3 results will show whether the stated earnings growth continues.
Watch forQ3 adjusted diluted EPS is at least $1.02, the low end of the stated range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted diluted EPS is below $1.02, the low end of the stated range.
Why it matters: Semtech raised its Q3 sales outlook from $410M to $417.5M. Results test whether strong orders turn into sales.
Watch forOn the Nov. 23 earnings call, Q3 net sales are at least $415M, the low end of the revised range.
Also watch forQ3 net sales are below $415M, the low end of the revised range.
Why it matters: Management named data center growth as a key focus. Total sales rose 33% year over year in Q2, but the release gives no data center sales figure.
Watch forSemtech reports data center sales growth above 33% year over year in its next earnings release.
Also watch forSemtech reports data center sales growth at or below 33% year over year in its next earnings release.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$425 on $10,000 · ±4.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $890 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,373 loss on $10,000 · 43.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted gross margin was 54.5%. The Q3 outlook calls for a sharp rise, so results test margin gains.
Watch forQ3 adjusted gross margin is at least 57.3%, the low end of the 58.3% outlook.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted gross margin is below 57.3%, the low end of the outlook.