Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$147.89+9.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 73.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 43.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMTC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 6, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Semtech Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), with certain of the Company’s domestic subsidiaries as subsidiary guarantors (the “Guarantors”), the lenders party thereto (“Lenders”), the letter of credit issuers party thereto, and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc., as administrative agent (in such capacity, the “Administrative Agent”) and swing line lender, consis…
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show growth in data center products. It shows management believes in their growth plan.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales reported at $328 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 net sales fall below $323 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows good cost control. It also shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.61 or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted earnings per share were below $0.59.
Why it matters: More design wins would support the company's growth strategy in data centers and IoT.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least 5 new major design wins in data center or IoT sectors.
Worry ifNo new significant design wins announced in the quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact Semtech's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the current quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the current quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings that meet expectations can help keep investor confidence. This is important for a company that is losing money.
Supportive ifThe latest earnings report shows results that are what analysts expected.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows results that are much lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Faster growth in data centers helps the company's long-term plans.
Supportive ifManagement says data center growth is speeding up this year.
Worry ifManagement says data center growth is slowing or not meeting goals.
Why it matters: How this debt affects cash flow will show financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Watch forOperating cash flow gets much better after issuing debt.
Also watch forOperating cash flow decreases or remains flat after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Hitting this sales target would confirm strong demand and growth momentum in data center and IoT markets.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reported at $410 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $405 million.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control. It means the company runs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin reported at 58.3% or above.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 57.3%.
Why it matters: This shows strong operational leverage and good cost control. It helps overall profits.
Supportive ifOperating income is reported at $127 million or more.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $123 million. This is a drop.
Why it matters: Completing this sale will show Semtech's focus. It may also help its finances.
Watch forThe sale of the cellular module business is complete. It has been announced.
Also watch forThe sale is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$469 on $10,000 · ±4.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $784 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,074 loss on $10,000 · 40.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.