Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Snap Inc (SNAP)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.92+5.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.14 → 0.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 27 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 27 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SNAP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $500 million stock repurchase program | The company is buying back up to $500 million of stock. | Intact | less than 50% of buyback executed by end 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on track for revenue growth and cash flow, but recent performance trails its industry cohort and the overall thesis remains in a watch state.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with a durable premium of 1.42 times peers, while the expectations gap is negative at 0.09. This suggests the premium is not viewed as unsupported, but expectations may still be ahead of what current results support.
Near term, revenue growth accelerated from 12% year over year in the first quarter of 2026 to 19% in the second, while free cash flow improved versus the prior-year quarter. Net income remains negative, and the recent operating loss was still substantial; a 16% headcount reduction shows management is pursuing efficiency, with mixed progress on profitability. High risk and a recent earnings miss make execution and the next guidance update important.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustained revenue and engagement growth alongside further progress toward positive net income and cash flow. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while lower interest rates or continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For a 1 to 3 year view, Snap has signs of improving growth and cash generation, but profitability is unproven and recent results remain weak versus peers. The thesis hinges on execution continuing without another guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Snap Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 16% headcount reduction. |
| Intact |
| headcount reduction falls below 10% by 2026-Q2 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain focused on serving our 971 million monthly active users, delivering measurable value for advertisers, and investing with discipline to increase free cash flow per share over time.”” ““In Q3, we generated positive net income as revenue grew 14% year-over-year to $1.72 billion, reflecting the progress we are making to build a more profitable business,” said Evan Spiegel, co-founder and CEO.” Operating cash flow was $176.214 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve net-income profitability | It aims to reach net-income profitability soon. | Under Pressure | net income remains negative through FY 2027 | Net income: $-163.96M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $0 by FY 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026-163,960,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 13% annually | A primary condition in Snap Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | revenue growth falls below 10% in FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.10 → $0.15 · observed estimates
$7.34B → $7.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.10 | $7,342,954,400 | 36 / 40 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $7,343,594,400 | 36 / 40 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.12 | $7,355,661,472 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.12 | $7,355,661,472 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $7,343,594,400 | 36 / 40 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.10 | $7,343,594,400 | 36 / 40 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.10 | $7,343,594,400 | 36 / 40 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.12 | $7,355,655,478 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.12 | $7,355,655,478 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $7,343,594,400 | 36 / 40 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.10 | $7,343,594,400 | 36 / 40 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.12 | $7,431,868,059 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.12 | $7,480,423,370 | 38 / 39 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.11 | $7,410,440,440 | 37 / 39 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.12 | $7,508,992,600 | 38 / 39 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.12 | $7,509,273,080 | 38 / 39 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.14 | $7,521,950,391 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.14 | $7,526,530,879 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,344 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,344 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,344 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,344 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,488 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,488 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,488 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,488 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,488 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,488 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.14 | $7,526,535,488 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.14 | $7,526,550,552 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.14 | $7,526,550,552 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.14 | $7,526,550,552 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.14 | $7,526,550,552 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.14 | $7,526,550,552 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.14 | $7,526,550,552 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.14 | $7,526,550,552 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,164 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.14 | $7,526,560,686 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.14 | $7,534,074,703 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.14 | $7,534,074,703 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.14 | $7,534,074,703 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.14 | $7,534,075,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.15 | $7,537,325,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.15 | $7,537,325,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.15 | $7,537,325,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.15 | $7,537,325,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.15 | $7,537,325,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.15 | $7,537,325,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.15 | $7,540,875,016 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.15 | $7,540,898,988 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.15 | $7,543,181,088 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.15 | $7,543,177,538 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.15 | $7,543,177,538 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.15 | $7,544,793,646 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.15 | $7,544,658,646 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.15 | $7,544,196,867 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.15 | $7,544,196,867 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.15 | $7,544,196,867 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.15 | $7,544,196,867 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.15 | $7,544,196,867 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.15 | $7,544,196,867 | 27 / 30 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.15 | $7,544,196,867 | 27 / 30 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 29 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.