Smart Sand Inc (SND)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.37-6.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers
SND — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
Other Events. On November 5, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a special dividend of $0.05 per share of common stock, to be paid on November 30, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on November 18, 2026 (the “Dividend”).
Why it matters: The company reported $0.8 million in free cash flow in Q1. Full-year cash flow tests its stated goal.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is above $0.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is $0 or less.
Why it matters: The report can show whether higher sand costs are still cutting the money earned per ton. Q1 margin fell from $12.18 to $8.84 per ton.
Worry ifThe November 11 report shows contribution margin below $8.84 per ton sold.
Less concerning ifThe November 11 report shows contribution margin at or above $8.84 per ton sold.
Why it matters: Management set this goal for 2026. More tons sold would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifBy year-end, 2026 tons sold are 5% to 10% above 2025 tons sold.
Worry ifBy year-end, 2026 tons sold grow less than 5% or fall below 2025 tons sold.
Why it matters: Industrial sales were flat from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. Growth would support the company's plan to expand this business.
Supportive ifA later 2026 report shows industrial sand sales volume above the same period in 2025.
Worry ifA later 2026 report shows industrial sand sales volume at or below the same period in 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $619 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,236 loss on $10,000 · 32.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management sees customer interest but wants firm commitments before spending on more fleets. A signed commitment would clear that hurdle.
Supportive ifSmart Sand names a customer commitment for a new SmartSystem fleet or reports a new fleet order.
Worry ifManagement reports no customer commitments and keeps new fleet spending on hold.
Why it matters: Management gave this spending range while targeting positive free cash flow. Spending above it could make that goal harder.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 capital spending exceeds $20 million. This does not include new terminals.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 capital spending is $20 million or less, not counting new terminals.