Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$34.06-7.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 19 industry peers
SNDA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10 , 2026 , Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 by issuing a press release. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information being furnished under Item 2.02, Item 7.01, Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 193…
Why it matters: The bridge loan matures in March 2027. A timely replacement would lower near-term funding pressure.
Supportive ifA filing names new permanent financing for the remaining $170 million bridge balance. This happens before March 9, 2027.
Worry ifThe bridge balance remains unpaid near its March 9, 2027 maturity. Or Sonida reports no refinancing plan.
Why it matters: Q2 occupancy rose to 87.8%, while same-store NOI grew 16.9%. Another gain would support continued growth in the existing homes.
Supportive ifIn the November 5 results, occupancy at the same stores is above 87.8%. NOI at the same stores is above $51.5 million.
Worry ifOccupancy at the same stores falls below 87.8%, or NOI at the same stores falls below $51.5 million.
Why it matters: A court ruling could settle a dispute tied to preferred shares and warrants. New costs or changes to share rights would add uncertainty.
Watch forA court filing or company filing says the dispute ended without extra cash payments or changes to share rights.
Also watch forA court or company filing calls for extra cash payments or changes preferred-share or warrant terms.
Why it matters: The added loan funds depend on meeting debt tests. Meeting them would complete the planned draw and support the funding plan.
Supportive ifA company filing says Sonida drew the remaining $7.5 million after meeting the loan's debt tests.
Worry ifA filing says Sonida failed the debt tests. Or the $7.5 million draw is still unavailable at the next report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $328 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,384 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The CHP deal added many homes but also brought high transition costs. Lower costs would show the merger is becoming easier to run.
Supportive ifThe next report shows transaction, transition, and restructuring costs below $4.8 million. In Q2, they were $4.8 million.
Worry ifThose costs are at least $4.8 million again. Or management reports new delays in combining CHP operations.