Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.69-0.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 45.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SNDA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10 , 2026 , Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 by issuing a press release. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information being furnished under Item 2.02, Item 7.01, Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 193…
Why it matters: Occupancy rates are important for revenue growth. Stable or rising rates show good management.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates rise above 87.2% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifOccupancy rates fall below 85% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Good capital allocation helps fund growth and manage debt. Changes could affect cash flow.
Watch forManagement has a new plan for spending money. It focuses on growth.
Also watch forManagement says they are changing their plan. They will not focus on growth.
Why it matters: High occupancy rates help make more money. They also show that the business is successful.
Supportive ifSame-Store occupancy rate is over 87.8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-Store occupancy rate drops below 85% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong NOI growth shows the CHP acquisition and management plan is working well.
Supportive ifSame-Store NOI growth exceeds 16.9% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-Store NOI growth falls below 10% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,639 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good integration will help revenue grow and improve operations. This affects long-term value.
Supportive ifManagement says the CHP acquisition is going well. It is adding value.
Worry ifManagement says there are issues or delays with the integration.
Why it matters: Good integration will prove the CHP acquisition is right and help future growth.
Watch forRevenue growth from the CHP acquisition exceeds 30% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forRevenue growth from the CHP acquisition is less than 10% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings will show the effects of the CHP merger and changes in operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA shows a big gain from the last quarter.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA falls or stays the same from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Integrating CHP well is important for expected growth. Delays could hurt performance.
Watch forManagement says they reached important integration goals by the end of Q3.
Also watch forManagement reports delays or problems with CHP integration by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: This loan is key for managing money and funding operations. Good use shows stability and growth.
Watch forManagement says they use the Ally Term Loan well to improve cash flow and support growth.
Also watch forManagement says there are problems using the Ally Term Loan well.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for financial health. It shows better efficiency and cost management.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative, worse than -$30M.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss means better financial health and more efficient operations.
Supportive ifNet loss attributable to common shareholders is less than $24.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet loss for common shareholders is over $30 million in Q3 2026.