Schneider National (SNDR)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.04+2.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SNDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
SNDR — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events. On July 29, 2026, the Company announced that on July 27, 2026 , the Board approved a quarterly cash dividend for the third quarter of 2026 in the amount of $0.10 per share to holders of the Company's Class A and Class B common stock. The dividend is payable to the Company's shareholders of record at the close of business on September 11, 2026 and is expected to be paid on October 9, 2026.
Why it matters: Stable operating income is important for Schneider's long-term plan. It helps build trust with investors.
Worry ifOperating income goes up to over $40 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income drops below $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Management lowered capex guidance to $350-$400 million. Staying within this range shows discipline.
Supportive ifQ3 capital spending was between $350 million and $400 million.
Worry ifQ3 capital spending goes over $400 million.
Why it matters: Stable operating income is key for Schneider's success. It shows how well they run.
Worry ifOperating income went up from $33.4 million in Q1.
Less concerning ifOperating income falls again. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Truckload revenue growth matters for performance. Stabilization shows strength in the market.
Watch forTruckload revenues (excluding fuel surcharge) grow year over year by more than 1%.
Also watch forTruckload revenues, not counting fuel surcharge, fall year over year.
Why it matters: An update to earnings guidance may show changes in market conditions or cost control.
Supportive ifManagement raises full year 2026 earnings per share guidance above $1.10.
Worry ifManagement lowers full year 2026 earnings per share guidance below $0.90.
Why it matters: Management cut capex guidance to $350-$400 million. Meeting this shows smart spending.
Supportive ifNet capital expenditures for the second half of 2026 fall within the $350-$400 million range.
Worry ifNet capital spending will exceed $400 million in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows a commitment to shareholders. Missing a payment could raise concerns.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share on July 10, 2026.
Worry ifThe company stops or cuts the dividend payment.
Why it matters: The $0.10 dividend shows a commitment to giving value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.10 per share is paid on October 9, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue per truck shows better pricing and productivity. This can boost overall earnings.
Supportive ifTruckload revenue per truck per week increases above $4,200.
Worry ifTruckload revenue per truck per week falls below $4,000.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could boost Schneider's performance. The sector is showing signs of maturing.
Watch for3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 10%.
Also watch for3-year revenue growth remains below 8%.
Why it matters: Growth in the Logistics segment is important for profit and market position.
Supportive ifLogistics revenues grow year over year by more than 10% in Q3.
Worry ifLogistics revenues decline year over year or grow less than 5% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,224 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.